MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/1/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles
Orioles +1.5 (-130): 2-Star Rating out of 5
In a battle of below-average pitchers, numberFire's model likes taking the underdog Baltimore Orioles at home against the New York Mets.
Baltimore has Asher Wojciechowski getting the ball, and his 5.13 ERA is very much deserved, as he's got a 4.82 SIERA and is giving up 2.39 home runs per 9.0 innings. Home runs have long been an issue for the fly-ball pitcher, so we should fully expect the Mets to get their share of runs.
However, the Mets have Ariel Jurado making his first 2020 appearance, and Jurado is arguably the worse pitcher following a dreadful 2019 campaign. Last year, he put up a 5.81 ERA that was only marginally worse than his 5.10 SIERA while posting a poor strikeout rate (15.0%) and ghastly Statcast metrics.
The Orioles have been a competent enough offense to make things interesting, and our algorithm projects the Baltimore runline hitting 62.62% of the time for a two-star bet.
Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox
Over 9.5 (-115): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Boston Red Sox pitching staff has been the worst in the league this year, with their 6.04 ERA easily outpacing the next highest team in the Detroit Tigers (5.51).
Things might not get any better tonight with Ryan Weber getting the start. Weber has been lit up for a 6.00 ERA over 24.0 innings, and his underlying numbers are ugly, with a 5.75 SIERA, 10.4% strikeout rate, and 10.4% walk rate. The Atlanta Braves could very well make up most of the ground on this total on their own.
For the Braves, Ian Anderson is making his second MLB start, and he turned heads in his debut against the Yankees, taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning. That doesn't give us nearly as much confidence in Boston's bats, but even top prospects like Anderson will inevitably hit some bumps along the way. He struggled with walks throughout the minors, and his five starts in Triple-A actually went quite poorly last season (6.57 ERA).
If Boston does their part, we should like the chances of these two combined for 10-plus runs. numberFire's model predicts the over hitting at a 62.24% clip for a two-star bet.
