MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/24/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
Over 7.5 (-106): 3-Star Rating out of 5
We have a good pitching matchup between up-and-comer Jesus Luzardo and veteran Lance Lynn, but this is also the lowest over/under of the evening, and numberFire's model sees value in taking the over.
The Oakland Athletics won't be a walk in the park for Lynn, with Oakland's active roster showing an above-average 105 wRC+ and .185 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. They also rank third in walk rate (11.6%), which could prove troublesome for Lynn, who's issued three or more walks in half his starts.
On the other side, Luzardo has posted a 3.67 ERA through 27.0 innings, but he has middle-of-the-road underlying numbers, including a 4.24 SIERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, and 9.7% walk rate. The Texas Rangers are a flawed offense, but it wouldn't also wouldn't be outlandish to expect them to score some runs against a pitcher with just 39.0 career innings under his belt.
Our algorithm projects the over hitting 62.31% of the time for a three-star bet.
Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
Astros Moneyline (-162): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Houston Astros shouldn't have a problem getting to left-hander Patrick Sandoval tonight, who has managed an uninspiring 5.40 ERA over four starts. That now gives him a career 5.16 ERA over 59.1 innings dating back to last season.
Sandoval's 2020 peripherals haven't offered much much hope, either, as his SIERA (4.80), strikeout rate (16.3%), and hard-hit rate allowed (57.6%) all leave a lot to be desired. He's had a particularly miserable time against right-handed batters, notching a 7.0% strikeout rate in the split.
Houston has also performed well against lefties this season and dating back to 2019, they own a robust 135 wRC+ in the split.
Furthermore, Astros lefty Framber Valdez is having a successful 2020 campaign (3.41 SIERA), so the Los Angeles Angels could have a tough night at the plate.
Our models give the Houston moneyline a two-star rating with a 67.15% chance of success.
