MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 8/20/20

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

Orioles +1.5 (-120): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Orioles Moneyline (+124): 3-Star Rating out of 5

numberFire's model is in love with the Baltimore Orioles tonight, who look like an enticing value against Nathan Eovaldi and the Boston Red Sox.

Although Eovaldi has performed well in some of his starts, he's coming off an eight-run drubbing at the hands of the New York Yankees, coughing up three dingers. He struggled with home runs in 2019, and this year he's allowing a 40.5% hard-hit rate while inducing a mere 41.7% ground-ball rate. Particularly at homer-friendly Camden Yards, it wouldn't be surprising to see him run into trouble again this evening.

Furthermore, Boston's relievers have performed poorly this year, and their active roster owns the third-worst bullpen ERA in the league (5.91). A 4.69 FIP and 4.35 xFIP suggest positive regression, but those are still pedestrian marks.

Baltimore has also been a surprise at the plate so far, producing a solid 106 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

The Red Sox should be able to plate some runs against Asher Wojciechowski, so there's some risk here, but the value is clearly all on the Orioles' side. Our algorithm sees the Orioles runline as a rare four-star bet with a 70.31% chance of success. The moneyline has a 58.80% likelihood for a three-star wager.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners

Mariners +1.5 (+138): 2-Star Rating out of 5

This one looks off when you compare the respective ERAs of Clayton Kershaw and Yusei Kikuchi, but this could be a closer matchup than it would initially appear.

Kikuchi has actually shown better velocity this year, and his underlying numbers have improved pretty much everywhere, with a 3.77 SIERA and 25.8% strikeout rate over three starts. He's also showing a 57.5% ground-ball rate and isn't allowing much hard contact.

A 9.7% walk rate is a step in the wrong direction, but that's about the only negative in his peripherals. Instead, a .350 BABIP and 55.0% strand rate are the main culprits for his poor results. If he can keep up what he's doing, positive regression should come along.

Of course, the Los Angeles Dodgers are a brutal matchup, and the Seattle Mariners' bats also have to find a way to tack on runs against Kershaw. Still, if Kikuchi is up to the task, this could be a tight game, and the Mariners have hung tough with the Dodgers in all three games of this series.

numberFire's model predicts a 52.23% chance of the Seattle runline hitting for a two-star bet.