MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/5/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves
Braves Moneyline (-140): 2-Star Rating out of 5
While the Atlanta Braves are -140 to beat the Toronto Blue Jays, our model has them as a slightly bigger favorite, and our algorithm thinks this line should be -187. A -140 line implies win odds of 58.3%, but we give the Braves a 65.2% chance of winning.
The pitching matchup is Hyun-jin Ryu versus Sean Newcomb, which is an advantage for the Jays. But this Atlanta lineup has the potential to be really stout against southpaws due to righty mashers Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna, and Dansby Swanson. Our model sees the Braves posting 5.39 runs tonight despite the less-than-ideal matchup with Ryu.
Once Ryu is out of the game -- and he's gone only nine total frames through two outings -- Atlanta can feast on a Toronto bullpen that sports the fourth-worst SIERA so far in 2020, plagued by an unsightly 14.5% walk rate.
Take the value on the Braves side.
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Mariners +1.5 (-110): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Mariners Moneyline (+140): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Seattle Mariners are a 1.5-run underdog against the Los Angeles Angels, but our algorithm has this as a coin-flip game. In fact, we give the M's a 51.8% chance to win it.
A lot of that probably stems from Seattle getting to face Julio Teheran, who is making his 2020 debut. Teheran struggled mightily last season with career-worst clips in SIERA (5.11) and hard-hit rate (38.7%). While not much was expected from the Seattle offense this year, it's been respectable in the early going with a 38.5% hard-hit rate.
Our model has Seattle covering the runline as the day's best bet, giving it a three-star rating. You could also take the M's to win, which we rate as a two-star play.
