5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 9/10/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Yasiel Puig, OF, Cleveland Indians ($3,100)
When looking for power on a nightly basis, Yasiel Puig generally pops up as a solid option, and tonight is no different. He is right on the fringe of what could be considered a "value" hitter, but with only one truly expensive pitcher to pay up for tonight, he makes the cut. He comes in with a .158 ISO and 40% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers this season, which are good-but-not-great numbers. We want power from him, and that could be coming in the matchup he has tonight, which should be the boost he needs.
Jose Suarez is on the mound for the Los Angeles Angels, and while he has just 68.1 innings pitched in the MLB, his small sample size shouldn't deter you. Suarez is holding a truly bad 5.61 xFIP, allowing 3.02 home runs per nine innings and a 51.2% hard-hit versus right-handed hitters. Those are some of the worst numbers you can find on this slate, so you should be looking to target Suarez with Puig and some of the Indians tonight.
Shohei Ohtani, OF, Los Angeles Angels ($2,900)
The Angels certainly aren't the best team in the league, but the matchup they have tonight versus Zach Plesac is worth looking at. Plesac is struggling in his first Major League season, allowing 1.31 home runs per nine innings, a horrible 10.2% walk rate, and a 37.6% fly-ball rate versus lefty hitters. There is nothing about those numbers that say "I need to stay away from this pitcher." It's actually the opposite, and you should look to roster against him.
At just $2,900 tonight, Shohei Ohtani is worth considering due to his overwhelming splits versus right-handed pitchers. He comes in with a .233 ISO, 50.7% hard-hit rate, and 25.9% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio in this split. While he isn't having the same success as last year, he is in a good spot tonight in what is clearly a very advantageous split for him.
Austin Riley, OF, Atlanta Braves ($2,400)
Not including Coors Field, the Atlanta Braves might be one of the best stacks on the night.
Getting exposure to the Braves has worked well this season, and there is no reason to stop as we approach the end of the year. They are up against Jason Vargas, who is allowing 1.31 home runs per nine innings to righties this season from a 44.4% fly-ball rate and a 30.0% hard-hit rate. Vargas is -- and has been -- one of the worst pitchers in the league over the past few seasons and someone you should stack against on a regular basis.
Austin Riley recently came back from his injury and is sitting at a very reasonable $2,400 price tag tonight, which should allow you to pay up for pitching. In his rookie season, he has posted a .455 ISO, 1.116 OPS, 61.8% hard-hit rate, and a 52.9% fly-ball ratio versus left-handed pitchers. As you can see, those are some absurd numbers, but they come from just a 69-game sample size. Regardless of that, our projections have Riley as the fifth-best hitter from a point-per-dollar perspective tonight.
Trent Grisham, OF, Milwaukee Brewers ($2,600)
Trent Grisham should be hitting out of the leadoff spot again tonight, so it's time to load him up.
Last night, Grisham posted five hits for a total of 37.4 FanDuel points, and while we don't want to chase that production, he is truly in a good spot tonight. The Milwaukee Brewers come in with a strong 4.79 implied team total, which is actually just the 13th-highest on the slate. There are plenty of options to pick from tonight, and the Brewers might not make the list for some people, but you should be looking toward Grisham. His 32-game sample size isn't amazing to look at, but a 50.9% fly-ball rate is worth taking note of given the right matchup.
That matchup is tonight versus Elieser Hernandez, who is allowing 3.06 home runs per nine innings to lefty hitters from a 46.5% hard-hit rate and 47.4% fly-ball rate. This is a great matchup to attack via the Brewers' lefty hitters, and the cheaper Grisham is a great value.
Kike Hernandez, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers ($2,600)
A massive 6.27 implied team total is what the Dodgers boast, which is the best on the slate outside of Coors Field. They are going to be popular tonight, and there is no way to hide it. You should want plenty of exposure to their lineup, and Enrique Hernandez offers a cheaper way to get just that. The Dodgers are going into an American League park tonight, which means they gain the DH, a boost for an already dangerous lineup.
Hernandez sits above 40-40 in terms of fly-ball rate and hard-hit rate versus left-handed pitchers for the season, along with an ISO that jumps from .176 on the year, to .243 while on the road in this split. Cheap power is not something you can find every slate, but Hernandez brings that tonight.