4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/27/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Justin Verlander OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Justin Verlander is seemingly on pace to win another Cy Young award, and this recent stretch has been simply amazing. Should we bet the OVER on his strikeout prop again tonight?
Verlander is already an amazing pitcher, and he is reaching towards a truly amazing record, which can be tied tonight. That record is for the most consecutive games with 10 or more strikeouts -- which is set at eight games -- held by Pedro Martinez and Chris Sale. Verlander is sitting at seven games with 10 or more strikeouts and now faces the Tampa Bay Rays and their 22.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers. His prop is set at 8.5 tonight and has even money odds on the OVER.
Verlander's 35.0% strikeout rate on the season is the highest on the slate, along with a 16.0% swinging-strike rate, which is also the highest. There shouldn't be anything holding Verlander back from reaching this unbelievable record and getting even money odds on it makes it all the more fun.
Luis Castillo OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-104)
This slate has a ton of pitching options to look at, and Luis Castillo should be at the top of the list.
Castillo is a hard-throwing righty for the Cincinnati Reds, who are on the road to take on the lowly Miami Marlins tonight. Castillo shouldn't have too many issues with this Marlins lineup, as they come in with a 24.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the sixth-worst in the league. Since the All-Star break, Castillo has started eight games and posted seven or more strikeouts four times, with two games being up at 10 or more.
His prop has next to no juice on it tonight, and with the Marlins being so weak and undisciplined at the plate, Castillo is in a good spot to hit the OVER on his strikeout prop.
Walker Buehler OVER 7.5 Strikeouts (-144)
Another stud pitcher, another strikeout prop to look at, as this seems to be the theme of the night.
This next pitcher is Walker Buehler, who has a prop sitting at 7.5 -- which seems too low -- but it has some juice on the OVER. The two prop bets above have favorable odds, so it could be ok to eat this one with the current odds. Buehler comes in with a 29.1% strikeout rate -- fifth-best on the slate -- and is facing a very weak San Diego Padres lineup who owns a 26.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is second-worst in the league.
Buehler knows a thing or two about facing the Padres, as he posted 15 strikeouts over nine innings against them earlier this month. The juice on this prop is worth the squeeze, as they say, and Buehler shouldn't have any issues with the Padres tonight.
Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+220)
Juan Soto is very good at hitting home runs. Aaron Brooks -- the pitcher Soto is facing -- is very good at giving up home runs. Well, not that he is trying to be good at giving up home runs, but he is allowing 2.29 home runs per nine innings to lefty hitters this season from a 22.2% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio.
Soto is absolutely blasting righty pitcher this year with a .293 ISO and monster 28.0% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. Soto is going to be around for many years to come, and the home runs will follow, so get on board now. Our projections have him as the number one most likely hitter to go deep tonight, all while coming in at +220 odds.