4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 8/22/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Gerrit Cole OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-152)
Cole comes in with a simply absurd 36.8% strikeout rate this season -- which is the best of any pitcher in action tonight -- and we see his prop set at 8.5 tonight.
There is a decent amount of juice on this prop, but I actually don't think it's that bad. It could be at -200, and I would still consider the bet, given how strong Cole is this season and how favorable the matchup is.
He is facing off against the Detroit Tigers, who come in with a 26.7% strikeout versus right-handed pitchers, which is dead last in the league. Verlander posted 11 strikeouts last night, and Cole is firmly on that path tonight.
Over his last eight games, Cole has posted nine strikeouts or more six times, and with the Tigers taking the box against him tonight, he should continue that streak.
Noah Syndergaard OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-104)
Thor is having a strong second half of the season with eight or more strikeouts in four of his seven starts, along with picking up the quality start in every one of them. He has turned on a level of consistency that's helped the Mets push forward with their playoff chase.
Tonight, he takes on the Cleveland Indians, who have a lower 21.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, putting this prop in an interesting spot. Thor doesn't have a massive strikeout rate -- only 23.7% -- and is facing a rather low strikeout team, but there is next to no juice on the over.
Syndergaard might be pitching through his best stretch of the season, though, and our projections have him going for 6.65 strikeouts tonight, which has him hitting the over and should bring another strong outing in the process.
Kenta Maeda UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Normally, I like to look for solid overs on strikeout props and shoot for upside, but not in this spot.
Kenta Maeda is on the bump for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he comes in with a 26.2% strikeout rate this season, along with 9.71 strikeouts per nine innings. Strong numbers from one of the more consistent pitchers in the league, but how does that stack up tonight?
Our projections have him going for 5.22 innings pitched, racking up 6.03 strikeouts in the process. In his eight games since the All-Star break, Maeda has pitched past the sixth inning just one time, showing he has a bit of short leash.
If Maeda isn't able to go deep into the game, he won't have ample opportunities to get strikeouts, which is why the under on 6.5 looks to be the bet tonight.
Jose Abreu To Hit a Home Run (+300)
If you're looking for a bit of power tonight, the Chicago White Sox at home could be the answer.
A 5.19 implied team total is solid for the White Sox, who are facing off against Ariel Jurado, a pitcher you actively want to stack against. Jurado comes in allowing 1.93 home runs per nine innings to righty hitters from a 43.9% hard-hit rate and a 23.9% home-run-to-fly-ball rate. These are truly bad numbers to have in today's MLB, and they line up nicely versus Jose Abreu, who has two home runs in his last three games and will look to add one more tonight.
Despite this being a same-sided matchup, Abreu is carrying a very solid .211 ISO, 40.6% hard-hit rate, and 21.3% home-run-to-fly-ball rate. The +300 odds are fantastic tonight and look to be firmly in the cards.