5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 7/29/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Matt Thaiss, 3B, Los Angeles Angels ($2,300)
Flat out terrible this season, Zimmermann has struggled to the tune of a 5.35 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) across 13 starts. He's been especially egregious against the 141 left-handed hitters he's faced, getting blasted for a .400 wOBA on a 41.2% hard-hit rate in the split.
Matt Thaiss has only made 41 major league plate appearances so far, and while his 36.6% strikeout rate is higher than you'd like to see, that aggressive swing has also lifted him to a 50.0% hard-hit and 45.5% fly-ball rate. A .351 ISO might not be sustainable for the 24-year-old, but he did put up a strong .374 wOBA and .203 ISO across 372 Triple-A plate appearances this year. With the platoon advantage against Zimmermann, don't expect his production to slow down too much tonight.
Matt Beaty, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers ($3,000)
This has been a down year for Gray, sporting a 4.41 SIERA, and left-handed hitters have tagged him for a .340 wOBA, 4.29 xFIP, and 43.8% hard-hit rate.
Matt Beaty has posted a 43.8% hard-hit rate with only a 9.4% soft-hit rate against right-handed hurlers in 2019, and that has translated to a .375 wOBA and .236 ISO -- numbers that give him more than enough upside to justify this price-tag at Coors.
Beaty isn't a lock to be in the starting lineup tonight though, starting only two of the Dodgers' last five games against righties, so keep an eye on our lineups page to make sure he's starting before you lock him into your lineup.
Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado Rockies ($3,000)
On the other side of that Coors Field game, Dodgers righty Kenta Maeda gets the nod, and the Rockies' 6.00-run implied total ranks third on the slate.
Maeda is having a down year, sporting a 4.25 SIERA across 21 games, which is far worse than his 3.76 career average. He's having a really tough time with left-handed pats in particular, with a 5.03 xFIP, .338 wOBA and 11.4% walk rate in the split.
Raimel Tapia isn't a massive power threat, and when hitting away from Coors Field he only has a .119 ISO for his career. Coors Field lifts all bats though, and at home Tapia has a career .388 wOBA, and .200 ISO. If we narrow that to home games against righties (194 plate appearances) his production jumps to a .412 wOBA and .232 ISO.
Scooter Gennett, 2B, Cincinnati Reds ($2,600)
Lyles hasn't been quite as bad this year as his 5.36 ERA might make it look, but his 4.43 SIERA isn't especially good either, and it brings his career average to 4.31. He's also been cracked for a hard-hit rate of at least 37.0% (37.6%) for the third-straight season, while his 37.8% fly-ball rate is a career-high.
Scooter Gennett has not been able to get anything going from the dish so far in 2019, but that's only been over a 61 plate appearance sample. Each of the last two seasons saw him notch a wOBA of at least .360 and ISO of at least .180, and having the platoon advantage against Lyles puts him in a good spot to find his groove.
Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds ($2,800)
Speaking of Reds bats that should benefit from the platoon advantage, Jesse Winker is a fairly extreme example.
He has only made 142 plate appearances against southpaws in the major, but he falls below the Mendoza line in that split while posting a .254 wOBA and .074 ISO. Against righties, though, he has converted a 43.7% hard-hit and 11.2% soft-hit rate into a .380 wOBA and .204 ISO over 661 plate appearances.
Lyles is an especially soft matchup for lefty sticks, struggling to the tune of a 5.23 xFIP on the year and a 5.19 xFIP since 2016. In those last four years, left-handed hitters have turned a 37.8% hard-hit rate into a .366 wOBA against Lyles, and Winker should have no trouble joining in on the trend.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.