4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 7/16/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Walker Buehler OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-144)
We have one of the best young pitchers in the league on the mound tonight, and his strikeout prop is worth considering.
That pitcher is Walker Buehler, who comes in with a strikeout prop sitting at 6.5, a mark which is certainly obtainable tonight given his consistency and his matchup. He has a 27.4% strikeout rate, one of the highest ones on the slate, and comes in with nine or more strikeouts in four of his last six starts. It's elite stuff from the first time All-Star, who is now up against the Philadelphia Phillies, an offense that comes in with a 23.0% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers.
Our projections have Buehler going for 6.88 strikeouts tonight and 6.49 innings pitched. That falls right in line with his 9.78 strikeouts per nine for the season, which sets him up to hit the OVER on this prop in the sixth inning.
Jack Flaherty Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Jack Flaherty has certainly had some ups and downs this year, but what does his strikeout prop look like tonight?
A 5.5 strikeout prop doesn't seem too high, but given the matchup, the UNDER is looking likely tonight. He is facing off against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who come in with a team strikeout rate at only 19.2% versus right-handed pitchers this season, the third-lowest in the league. The Pirates simply don't chase often at the plate, nor do they give up free outs. This puts Flaherty, who does have a solid 26.4% strikeout rate, in a tough spot since he won't be able to thrive at what he is best at, which is sending hitters back to the dugout via the strikeout.
It's even money on the UNDER right now, and given the less-than-favorable matchup versus the Pirates, it looks to be the better option.
Mike Moustakas To Hit a Home Run (+185)
Are the Milwaukee Brewers in a spot to scoring some runs and break out of their slump tonight?
This is a good spot for them to score some runs as they are going up against Atlanta Braves pitcher Bryse Wilson, who has just 21 career innings pitched in the MLB. But the question really is -- can those runs come via the home run? More specifically in this case: Will Mike Moustakas hit one over the fence tonight?
Both of those are looking like a yes tonight, so let's take a look. Our projections have Moustakas as the fourth-most likely hitter for a home run tonight, and that shouldn't come as any surprise. He has a .277 ISO, 46.6% hard-hit rate, and 45.2% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Those numbers are amazing, and they get even better when he is at home, like he is tonight, versus right-handed pitchers, jumping to a .308 ISO and 54.7% hard-hit rate.
Power on top of power on top of power. Moustakas usually brings it in this split and is ramped up while at home, which is why he is primed to go deep tonight.
Javier Baez To Hit a Home Run (+230)
It's set to be a hot and humid night at Wrigley. Should we be searching for home run props there?
Just a few spots back after Moustakas in our projections for home runs is Javier Baez, who is looking for his first home run on this side of the All-Star break. Baez has power at home, away, versus lefties and versus righties -- it really doesn't matter with him. He will always pop in terms of the projections and potential upside due to his power, and we could see his ceiling come to fruition tonight against Anthony DeSclafani, who is giving up a 45.0% hard-hit rate to righties away from home this season. DeSclafani pitches in a very hitter-friendly park for his home games, which can impact his numbers, so seeing that he is still getting hit hard regardless on the road can be helpful.
Baez has a 23.1% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio while at home versus righty pitchers this season, along with a .284 ISO in the same split. The +230 odds on Baez to go yard are pretty appealing.