4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/27/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Stephen Strasburg Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-144)
This shouldn't be breaking news, but the Miami Marlins strike out a lot, and you should look to target the pitcher going against them.
That pitcher tonight is Stephen Strasburg, who comes in with a 29.1% strikeout rate this season, the best of any pitcher in action tonight. The Marlins come in sporting a 25.5% strikeout rate this season versus righty pitchers, which is the sixth-worst in the league, making this an ideal matchup for Stras. This seems to be as simple as it gets -- high-strikeout pitcher versus a high-strikeout team, which is why we have Strasburg projected for 6.93 strikeouts tonight, the most of any pitcher going.
There is a bit of juice on the OVER for this strikeout prop, but that is due to the fact it's likely to happen and the 6.5 line might even be a bit low. The Marlins have been dominated over the past two nights by Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin, and that should could continue tonight with Strasburg in action.
Walker Buehler Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-128)
There is no question that Walker Buehler is a good pitcher, but the under on his strikeout prop for today is looking to be a solid bet.
He comes in with a 28.4% strikeout rate, which is as legit as you can find in the Majors, but this prop bet isn't about his strikeout ability. He is in Coors Field, which always presents an issue for pitchers since they can get chased early. As it happens, the Colorado Rockies have a 4.87 implied run total tonight, and it can go much higher than that in a hurry. We have Buehler projected for 6.11 strikeouts in 6.0 innings.
This isn't a bet about Buehler's strikeout ability, rather a bet that he might not last deep enough into the game to reach the over on the 6.5 prop. He comes in with 9.85 strikeouts per nine innings this season, which would mean that -- at that clip -- he needs to get to at least the sixth inning, where we have him projected, plus a bit more to hit the over. It seems there are a few more factors going against him tonight rather than going for him -- pointing to the under as a result.
Max Muncy To Hit a Home Run (+220)
Coors Field brings us the best hitting environment on the slate, and we should be seeing plenty of home runs. What props should we look at for this game?
Max Muncy is a power-hitting lefty who has the platoon advantage against Peter Lambert, a young pitcher for the Colorado Rockies and one who has 20 innings pitched in the Major Leagues all season. In a situation like this, sticking with the proven hitter over the pitcher is the safer route to go, and now we can grab a juicy home run prop on top of it.
Muncy comes in with some of the best numbers you can find versus right-handed pitchers, which is why we have him projected as the sixth-most likely hitter to go deep tonight. Said numbers versus righties look like this -- a .365 wOBA, .239 ISO, 43.2% hard-hit rate, and 22.0% home-run-to-fly-ball rate. Those are All-Star level numbers, and now we get him at solid odds to hit a home run.
Matt Chapman To Hit a Home Run (+330)
Chapman enters this one with three home runs in his last six games, and while that rate isn't sustainable in the long run, he could continue it a bit longer. He is up against Griffin Canning, who doesn't have a ton of innings under his belt this season but is getting blasted by righty hitters. Canning has a 4.75 xFIP, allowing 1.57 homers per nine innings, a 41.9% hard-hit rate, and a 48.2% fly-ball rate.
Those are dangerous numbers to hold when going up against Chapman, who has a .240 ISO and 44.9% hard-hit rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. You can look outside of Coors Field tonight for some home runs and get great odds on the prop, as well.