5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 6/26/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
J.T. Realmuto, C, Philadelphia Phillies ($2,900)
That opens the door nicely for the right-handed Realmuto, whose overall .317 wOBA and .173 ISO this year don't jump off the page, but who has notched a .349 wOBA and .260 ISO on a 42.4% hard-hit rate against southpaws in 2019. That's a relatively small sample, but with a .204 ISO in the split since 2017, we know his power against lefties is for real.
Josh Reddick, OF, Houston Astros ($2,800)
He's only got four major league innings under his belt, but Agrazal hasn't inspired a ton of confidence in the minors, with a 4.28 xFIP across 54 Triple-A innings in 2019.
Reddick gets the platoon advantage in this spot, Josh Redick is no killer from the dish, but he has a not-egregious .317 wOBA against right-handed pitching this year, bringing him to a .329 wOBA on a 32.8% hard-hit and 43.0% fly-ball rate in the split since becoming an Astro. As one of the few cheap ways to get exposure to the Houston offense, those marks are solid enough.
David Bote, 2B, Chicago Cubs ($2,600)
After opening his major league career with an underwhelming .314 wOBA and .167 ISO in 2018 (disappointing marks after he impressed with a .361 wOBA and .226 ISO in Triple-A), he's looking much better in 2019.
He's cut his strikeout rate by nearly 5 percentage points (to 23.9%) and raised his walk rate up to the double-digits (10.6%), and he's notched a .338 wOBA while showing some nice power with a .202 ISO. That increased production comes on some improved contact as well, with a slight dip in hard-hit rate (to a still-strong 37.7%) and a soft-hit rate cut down to 11.0%.
That hard-hit rate jumps north of 40% in his split against left-handed pitching in his big league career, positioning him well against Atlanta Braves southpaw Dallas Keuchel who just got cracked for four runs (three earned) in 5 innings in his first start of 2019.
Willson Contreras, C, Chicago Cubs ($3,000)
Right back to the Cubs, Keuchel looked rusty in that first start of the year, with an average fastball velocity of only 87.0 miles per hour, down from 2018's 88.6. For context, 87.0 miles per hour would stack up as the fifth-lowest average fastball velocity among the 289 hurlers with at least 500 pitches thrown this year.
Contreras is having a terrific season from the dish, with a .395 wOBA and .268 ISO, and it really doesn't make a ton of sense that he's still available this cheaply. This success doesn't look like any sort of a fluke, either, as this is on pace to be his third time in four major league seasons with both a wOBA above .360 and an ISO above .200.
He's especially capable of beating up on southpaws, too, with a career. 371 wOBA and .213 ISO.
Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers ($2,400)
Aguilar is having a pretty brutal season from the dish, with a .282 wOBA so far, but he also looks to be getting pretty unlucky. His .244 BABIP sits well below the .309 he had last year and his .301 career-average, and his 10.6% home-run-to-fly-ball rate is barely half of his career-average 20.3% mark.
His 38.3% hard-hit and 36.7% fly-ball rates are still strong marks, so there's plenty of reason to believe he can lift his wOBA up above .350 and his ISO into the .200's like we saw in his first two seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.