4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/20/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Charlie Morton UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)
Charlie Morton is the most expensive pitcher on the slate from a DFS perspective, but does that mean he is guaranteed a ton of strikeouts?
Morton comes in with a 30.6% strikeout rate this season, which is highest on the slate, but now he faces off against the Oakland Athletics, who have a 20.9% strikeout rate, which is the seventh-lowest in the league. They simply don't give up many free plate appearances by swinging and missing, putting Morton in a tough spot.
He won't be able to flex his strengths on the mound, which should point us to the under on his prop, as is shown with our projections having him at 6.14 strikeouts tonight.
Jake Odorizzi OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-128)
While in the midst of career year, Jake Odorizzi has a soft strikeout prop that is worth attacking tonight.
His 28.3% strikeout rate is the second best among any pitcher toeing the slab tonight, and he's up against the Kansas City Royals, who are near the middle of the league with a 22.8% strikeout rate versus righty pitchers. Odorizzi comes in with seven or more strikeouts in four straight starts, and we have him projected for 5.67 punchouts tonight. That projection puts him over his 5.5 strikeout prop, which shouldn't come as a surprise since he surpassed that mark against the Royals last week, striking out seven hitters in six innings of work.
A true Cy Young candidate this year, Odorizzi has favorable odds tonight in a matchup that shouldn't cause much concern, thus leading to him hitting the over on this strikeout prop.
Kyle Schwarber To Hit a Home Run (+310)
Spoiler Alert: Kyle Schwarber is going to hit a home run tonight.
That's the short of it -- now time for the long of it. Schwarber comes in with the lowest odds on the Chicago Cubs, aka the most likely to hit a home run tonight versus the New York Mets, and we want to jump on the favorable potential payout. He's facing off against Walker Lockett, who will be making his first start in the Majors this season and only had a 4.98 xFIP and super low 8.9% strikeout rate in Triple-A before his call-up.
He is a young pitcher with very little Major League experience, so we want to rely on Schwarber in this situation to hit one deep.
Schwarber has a monster .251 ISO, 38.4% hard-hit rate, and 24.1% home-run-to-fly-ball rate versus righty pitchers this season. He has been one of the better home run hitters for a few seasons, and he shouldn't be slowing down tonight.
Nelson Cruz To Hit a Home Run (+320)
The Kansas City Royals will have Glenn Sparkman on the mound tonight, and he comes in with a 4.61 xFIP and 34.9% hard-hit rate versus righty hitters this season. Our projections have Sparkman allowing 0.75 home runs tonight, which is likely to come from Nelson Cruz, who is projected as our sixth-highest hitter to hit a home run tonight.
This shouldn't come as a surprise since Cruz is carrying a .241 ISO, whopping 47.8% hard-hit rate, and 38.9% fly-ball rate versus righty pitchers this season. We have the ideal matchup for Cruz to hit one over the fence tonight and cash that prop.