5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 6/17/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Tommy La Stella, 3B, Los Angeles Angels ($3,000)
It's hard to complain about getting the likely leadoff hitter against an Edwin Jackson-led team for $3,000 or less. When that hitter is Tommy La Stella, this becomes an even tougher spot to fade.
This shouldn't come as any surprise if you looked deeper than his 3.33 ERA last season, but Edwin Jackson is not pitching well. That ERA belied the struggles that led to a 4.98 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), which was far more in line with what we'd seen from him in recent years, posting a 5.89 ERA And 5.23 SIERA in 2016 and a 5.21 ERA with a 5.03 SIERA in 2017.
Sure, he's not been "10.22 ERA" bad in 2019, but his 5.43 SIERA is still on pace to be his worst since 2005, and any time he's in action you should immediately have your eye on the opposing offense.
Tommy La Stella has bounced back from a down year in 2018 with a strong .371 wOBA and .223 ISO in 2019, over what is already the second-biggest sample (254 plate appearances) of his career. He's been especially good against righties, too, with a .394 wOBA over 178 plate appearances. That brings him to a .357 wOBA and .168 ISO over a significant 484 plate appearance sample over the last three years, making him an outstanding play against E-Jax, even though he's priced at the top end of the value spectrum.
Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels ($3,000)
Kole Calhoun was a mainstay of this article early in the season, but he graduated from the "value" range in late April, being priced north of $3,000 in all but one game from April 27 to June 15. He has only three fantasy points in the last four games, and that's driven his price back to where we like to see it.
A tiny sample of struggles shouldn't have you concerned about him, considering he's made some outstanding contact this season, turning in a 42.4% hard-hit, 14.1% soft-hit, and 41.5% fly-ball rate. Like La Stella, he's very comfortable against righties, with a .330 wOBA and powerful .250 ISO in that split this season.
The Los Angeles Angels offense is one of the most appealing on tonight's slate, so getting a couple of top-six hitters with the platoon advantage priced this low is a steal.
Robbie Grossman, OF, Oakland Athletics ($2,700)
Another pitcher we're almost always picking on when he takes the mound, Andrew Cashner is set to start for the Baltimore Orioles tonight, leaving the Oakland Athletics with a big 5.31-run implied total.
Cashner is on pace for his third consecutive season with a SIERA north of 5.00, and the O's relief group also ranks in the bottom-five in the majors in that stat.
The switch-hitting Robbie Grossman is no power monster against right-handed pitchers, but he's been consistently viable in that split over the last four years, with a .322 wOBA and 13.1% walk rate since 2016. He doesn't offer huge upside on his own, but the high-scoring offense surrounding him gives him a bump with plenty of potential for runs and RBI tonight.
Matt Adams, 1B, Washington Nationals ($2,600)
Adams, on the other hand, very much has the power to offer big upside on his own, especially with the platoon advantage like he has tonight.
He has turned in a wOBA of at least .343 against righties in each of the last three seasons, also topping a .250 ISO in the split in each year. Overall that gives him a .354 wOBA and .260 ISO on a 39.8% hard-hit and 45.8% fly-ball rate against righties since 2017 (705 plate appearances).
Eric Hosmer, 1B, San Diego Padres ($3,000)
Among starting pitchers in action tonight that have pitched at least 25 innings this season, Chacin's 5.72 xFIP ranks dead-last. He already had some struggles in the last two seasons, with a 4.63 SIERA in 2017 and 4.59 in 2018, and he's opened 2019 with a 5.63. The time on the injured list may help him bounce back some from his terrible start to the season, but even if he does, those stats from the last two seasons don't leave a ton of room for confidence.
Eric Hosmer is also not going to be a fun hitter for Chacin to return against. The lefty has been excellent against right-handed hurlers for a while now, boasting a .371 wOBA and .181 ISO since 2017, and that does not warrant such a low price-tag in this matchup.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.