4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/10/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Chris Sale OVER 9.5 Strikeouts (-105)
We've gotten to the point where doubting Chris Sale seems like a bad idea, regardless of matchup or ballpark, it doesn't seem to matter.
Sale comes into this game with 10 strikeouts or more in six of his last seven games and has a strikeout prop set at 9.5 tonight, with very little juice on the over. This presents an opportunity to continue riding Sale's 34.9% strikeout rate this season against the Texas Rangers, who have a 24.2% strikeout rate versus lefty pitchers.
The park factor isn't great since Sale is at home in Fenway Park, but he posted 10 strikeouts or more in each of his last two starts there and that should in the cards yet again tonight. The -105 is very favorable and should be attacked confidently given his recent success.
Luke Voit To Hit a Home Run (+200)
The Subway Series has it's first installment of 2019 but will we be seeing the long ball tonight, specifically from some New York Yankees hitters?
The Yankees' hitters are always a threat to go deep when at home, and now they are up against Jason Vargas, who is allowing a 4.72 xFIP, 37.8% hard-hit rate, and a 36.1% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters. This should put them in a good spot to hit one over the fence and with Luke Voit coming in at +200 odds, he has a favorable line along with the power to do so.
Voit is carrying a .240 ISO, 32.4% hard-hit rate, and a 40.5% fly-ball rate versus lefty pitchers this season. The power is there, the park factor is there, and the matchup is there for Voit to go deep tonight.
Masahiro Tanaka Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+107)
Masahiro Tanaka had his start pushed back to today due to his child being born, so if you want to roll with the baby narrative, fire away.
In reality, the 5.5 strikeout prop for Tanaka tonight looks like a good one to target given his success against the New York Mets. Over the course of his career, Tanaka has 26.1 innings pitched against the Mets, with 24 strikeouts, which is good for 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Those solid numbers are reflected in his 21.4% strikeout rate this season. That's not an amazing strikeout rate by any means and actually his lowest since 2016, but the 5.5 line is a bit low considering the Mets have a 23.4% strikeout rate this season versus righty pitchers.
Our models echo all this as Tanaka is projected for 5.64 strikeouts tonight, which would hit the over at favorable odds.
Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 9.0 Runs (-124)
The Rays will have Charlie Morton on the mound tonight, who is as good as they come this season, posting a 30.4% strikeout rate and allowing three or fewer earned runs in 12 of his 13 starts this season. The veteran righty is getting it done so far this season and that should continue tonight versus the Athletics, who come in with a 94 wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers.
A favorable park factor with this game being in Tampa Bay should allow Morton to continue his strong streak of starts, which is further shown by our projections have him giving up only 1.68 earned runs. This all should make the under the likely outcome tonight, which only a little bit of juice on those odds.