4 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 5/30/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball. High odds for a hitter bombing a home run or a pitcher tallying several strikeouts is something worth considering in building your FanDuel lineups. And that's a two-way street.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on those players likely to go yard and over- or under-perform their expected strikeout total.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Chris Sale OVER 8.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Chris Sale will be on the mound for the first game of this series, and despite his struggles at the start the season, things have turned around in a big way for him. He comes in with 10 or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts, with two of those games coming in at 14 strikeouts or more. Those are the numbers you expect to see from him any time he is starting, and tonight should be no different.
For as much power as the Yankees' lineup has, they struggle against left-handed pitchers, coming in with a 27.2% strikeout rate against them, which is third-worst in the league. Historically, Sale has been very good against the Yankees, totaling 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings over a 105.2-inning sample, according to Baseball Reference.
There line on the over for Sale's strikeouts is very favorable and should be strongly considered tonight.
Justin Turner to Hit a Home Run (+460)
Justin Turner is in a bit of a power slump right now but has a nice matchup to break out of that and go deep tonight.
Over the past two weeks, Turner has an impressive .373 wOBA with super low 6.7% strikeout rate, but he's also go an almost non-existent .077 ISO in that time. There's been very little power coming from him recently, but facing off against a left-handed pitcher is when he has excelled this season with a .215 ISO.
Why is Turner in a spot to go deep tonight and break out of his power slump? Well, he is up against Jason Vargas, who is -- simply put -- a bad pitcher. It doesn't matter if you look at this season's stats, last season's stats, or go back several years. In 2019, he is allowing 1.57 homers per nine innings, a 48.0% hard-contact rate, and 40.3% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters. Compare that to last season's 1.92 homers per nine innings, 33.9% hard-contact rate and 40.9% fly-ball rate to righty hitters.
If there is any time for Turner to turn things around, this is the matchup for him to do so against a bad pitcher.
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 8.5 Runs (-110)
As noted above, on the mound tonight for the Mets is Vargas, who is not a good and should be vastly overmatched tonight being up against Hyun-jin Ryu. The bulk of the runs scored in this one will likely come from the Dodgers' offense, since Ryu has been unbelievable this season.
Over his last five starts, 38 innings pitched, Ryu has allowed a total of three earned runs, giving him a staggeringly low 1.65 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP for the season. Those are Cy Young-type numbers, and with the Mets coming in with a 26.2% strikeout rate (eighth-worst in the league) versus left-handed pitchers, Ryu should be able to keep them in check tonight, helping this game to hit the under.
Joey Gallo to Hit a Home Run (+175)
Joey Gallo is one of the best power hitters in the league, which is why he comes in with the best odds in this game to hit a home run. It's still a prop worth considering despite his game-best homer odds.
At +175, Gallo has the platoon advantage and is at home in the best hitting park on the slate. This season, Gallo has been absolutely obliterating right-handed pitchers with a .428 wOBA, .368 ISO, and a 63.1% hard-contact rate (!) in the split.
Having numbers like those puts Gallo in a nice spot to go deep whenever he's facing a righty. A matchup against Jake Junis, who is allowing 1.65 homers per nine innings and a 42.9% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters, makes a dinger all the more likely for Gallo, who our models have as the third-most likely hitter to go yard tonight.