5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for 5/29/19
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-priced slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-priced NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-priced play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Keon Broxton, OF, Baltimore Orioles ($2,300)
We're used to talking about the Baltimore Orioles offense through the lens of what pitchers to target in DFS. It's a rare day when their hitters offer much appeal, but this is certainly one of them -- they're showing a 5.02-run implied total against southpaw Ryan Carpenter and the Detroit Tigers.
Generally, an offense with an implied total north of five runs is going to be expensive to get exposure to, but that's not the case here, with their projected lineup for tonight including six sticks priced below $3,000.
Broxton's having a rough season from the dish, but he's shown himself to be more than capable in 275 career plate appearances against southpaws. His 36.0% strikeout rate is an obvious red flag, but it comes with a 15.3% walk rate as well as a .338 wOBA and .185 ISO on a hefty 37.3% hard-hit rate. For only $300 above the minimum, those are some solid numbers.
Hanser Alberto, 2B, Baltimore Orioles ($2,700)
Alberto has been hitting leadoff against southpaws for the last two games, and he remains nice and cheap for a leadoff bat in tonight's plus matchup.
Ryan Carpenter has only pitched three games this season, but he's struggled to the tune of a 4.66 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), bringing his major league average to 4.69 over nine games. He also posted an awful 5.31 xFIP at the Triple-A level in seven starts this year, not exactly inspiring any confidence there, either.
Alberto's only got a .305 wOBA on the year, but he's shown himself to be capable with the platoon advantage, turning a 35.7% hard-hit rate and 38.9% fly-ball rate into a .410 wOBA against lefties over the last two years. That's only over 69 plate appearances and comes with a .463 BABIP, so don't get too carried away looking at that wOBA, but the contact is certainly encouraging, especially in a matchup this good.
Brandon Dixon, 1B, Detroit Tigers ($2,700)
Just because the O's offense is in a good spot tonight doesn't mean their usual pitching woes aren't still prevalent. They're starting southpaw John Means, who has a 4.73 SIERA over 12 games in his first full season in the majors. Their relief unit also remains one of the worst in the majors, with the fourth-worst xFIP (4.91) of any group.
This leaves the Tigers with a solid 4.60-run implied total, despite their general offensive malaise.
Brandon Dixon has been a bright spot in the Tigers' lineup, albeit over a small sample so far in 2019. He's made 71 plate appearances, converting a massive 55.0% hard-hit rate into a .380 wOBA and .265 ISO.
He raked to the tune of a .418 wOBA over 193 Triple-A plate appearances last year, and over 195 in the majors, he's sporting a 44.3% hard-hit rate and 13.9% soft-hit rate, so there's plenty of room for optimism that he continues to boast some big fantasy upside.
Matt Adams, 1B, Washington Nationals ($2,400)
Adams has only managed a .303 wOBA through 85 plate appearances this year, but that still comes with a .210 ISO, showing that he's still offering his usual power upside. This is on pace to be his fourth consecutive season with an ISO of at least .210, and the last three saw him turn in wOBAs of .331, .346 and .334.
His hard-hit rate (44.2%) and soft-hit rate (13.5%) in 2019 are both his best marks in that four-season stretch, so the dip in wOBA isn't anything to be concerned about.
He's made 946 plate appearances against right-handed hurlers in that stretch, and in that sample has turned a 39.0% hard-hit rate and 46.6% fly-ball rate into a .343 wOBA and .240 ISO.
Ryan O'Hearn, 1B, Kansas City Royals ($2,400)
O'Hearn is another guy that can really bash when he's got the platoon advantage, with a .373 wOBA and .282 ISO on a 43.4% hard-hit rate, 9.1% soft-hit rate and 42.3% fly-ball rate over 274 plate appearances in the majors.
His production has been poor so far in 2019, but that's in part because of a lowly .221 BABIP, which isn't likely to keep up while he continues making good contact (36.7% hard-hit, 12.8% soft-hit rates).
Chicago White Sox righty Reynaldo Lopez has opened 2019 with a 5.10 SIERA over 11 games after posting a 4.92 mark in 32 games last year, and his career average now sits at an ugly 4.95. He's sporting an especially egregious 5.80 xFIP against left-handed hitters, and O'Hearn should have no trouble getting on track in this spot.
Our models also have O'Hearn as one of the top point-per-dollar values among today's hitters.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.