3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/20/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Michael Conforto OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+110)
We are 2-0 in our last two prop wagers on the New York Mets and Colorado Rockies this week, and our models are once again singling out some great prop wagers. Michael Conforto is not without risk on Wednesday with +110 odds, but a matchup against Chad Bettis in Coors Field is one our projections like.
Conforto has already been a machine away from Citi Field this season. He owns a .392 wOBA and a .233 isolated power on the road, a 42.4% hard hit rate on the road against righties is nothing to scoff at. Wrap that up and put it in Coors, and our models project Conforto for 3.12 runs, hits, and RBI.
Aaron Judge OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-105)
Aaron Judge is likely going to be one of the more popular DFS studs on Wednesday's main slate, but he could also hold some strong prop value in his matchup at home against Felix Hernandez, who isn't so "King Felix" anymore.
Judge has destroyed right-handed pitching this season with a .419 wOBA, and a .999 OPS across 223 plate appearances. Considering righties post a 38.4% hard hit rate against Hernandez, as well as a .377 wOBA, when he pitches on the road, our models project Judge for 3.1 combined runs, hits, and RBI.
Gio Gonzalez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Gio Gonzalez is back at home for the continuation of this week's Beltway series against the Baltimore Orioles. Tonight, the Washington Nationals' southpaw has some nice strikeout potential against one of the league's worst offensive teams.
Even though the Orioles are likely going to counter Gonzalez with all right-handed hitters, they still own a team strikeout rate of 24.0%, and the O's only have a .294 team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. The Orioles could be doing a lot of swinging and missing, as our models project Gonzalez for 6.18 strikeouts.