3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 6/15/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jose Altuve OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-120)
Jose Altuve is averaging 2.7 runs, hits, and RBI per game in the month of June, and he collected 4 on Thursday in the Houston Astros' eighth straight win. Altuve has another date with a right-hander on Friday, and even as some slight chalk, our models like the over.
Altuve owns a .396 wOBA and a .146 isolated power against right-handed pitching this season, and he is averaging a run, hit, and RBI every 1.7 plate appearances. For Friday, our models project Altuve for 3.2 runs, hits, and RBI.
Marcell Ozuna UNDER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-155)
A player our models aren't too high on for Friday night is Marcell Ozuna. He and the St. Louis Cardinals have a tough matchup against Jon Lester, and among the Cards' hitters, Ozuna's projections are very low.
It could be because Lester has been very strong against right-handed hitters in 2018, holding them to a .286 wOBA over 239 total batters faced. The result? Our models are projecting Ozuna for only 2.08 combined runs, hits, and RBI on Friday.
Jean Segura Will Have MORE Runs, Hits, and RBI Than Xander Bogaerts (-135)
We tried to fade Xander Bogaerts to no avail on Thursday, but our models are once again bearish on the Boston Red Sox' shortstop. He is matched up with with Jean Segura on Friday in a runs, hits, and RBI prop at Bovada, and Segura could be a strong value.
James Paxton has been outstanding against right-handed hitters this season, limiting them to a .225 wOBA over 287 batters faced. If Paxton is sharp, Bogaerts could be in for a rough night. Segura is coming off an 0-for-4 game on Thursday, but our models project him for 2.23 runs, hits, and RBI, compared to 1.81 for Bogaerts.