3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 5/23/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Aaron Judge OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, RBI (+100)
Aaron Judge isn't someone we ever have to dock because of platoon splits. Since the start of the 2017 season, he has absolutely raked in righty-versus-righty matchups, notching a .440 wOBA and .350 ISO. He's up to his usual tricks in 2018, too, opening the season with a .411 wOBA and .275 ISO overall.
He draws a plus pitching matchup against Doug Fister, who hasn't finished a season with a SIERA better than 4.30 since 2014, and the New York Yankees have the day's highest implied total (5.64) by a huge margin. That means there should be no shortage of opportunities for scoring.
Despite his recent slump, our models like Judge to crush the 2.5 over/under here, projecting him for a combined 2.98 runs, hits and RBI. Getting even money on a mark that is almost 17% lower is tough to pass up.
Josh Donaldson WILL Hit a Home Run (+375)
Josh Donaldson against a lefty isn't synonymous with big production is coming the way it used to be, but he's still showing no shortage of pop against southpaws in 2018, with a 43.5% hard-hit rate. His sample-size this year is also tiny, at 41 plate appearances. If we look back to 2017, when he made 100 plate appearances against lefties, he once again managed a hard-hit rate north of 40%, which translated to a .427 wOBA and .400 ISO.
Tyler Skaggs is off to a solid start to the season, but he's still letting right-handed bats make terrific contact, with a 10.5% soft-hit and 39.0% hard-hit rate against.
At +375, Donaldson has an implied 21.1% chance of hitting a home run in this matchup. Our models project him for the day's fourth-highest home run total at 0.36, and while you can't directly switch that to a probability (thanks to the slight chance of a multiple home run game skewing things), but the difference is more than big enough to create serious value here.
Mike Trout OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, RBI (-120)
Mike Trout has our models' highest projected run, hit and RBI total tonight at 3.19. That makes him one of only three players we project for over 3.0 on the day.
Trout is an absolute killer from the dish, and he ranks third among qualifying hitters in wOBA (.440) while sitting tied for second in ISO (.331). Toronto Blue Jays righty Aaron Sanchez is on pace for his second consecutive season with a SIERA north of 5.00, and he's no real threat to slow Trout down.
As an added bonus for Trout, Jays' relievers have allowed a .340 wOBA to right-handed bats this season, which is the third-highest in the Majors.