3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 5/22/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Corey Dickerson OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+130)
Corey Dickerson and the Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road at the Great American Launching Pad against the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday, and while it's Dickerson's first career trip to Cincinnati, our models think he'll like hitting there.
Dickerson has destroyed the ball against right-handed pitchers this season with a .384 wOBA and .206 isolated power over 141 plate appearances. If he and the Pirates can get to Matt Harvey early, our models project Dickerson for 2.81 runs, hits, and RBI.
Aaron Judge OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (-110)
If there is one player our models love on Tuesday, it's Aaron Judge. The hard-hitting young outfielder is up against left-hander Cole Hamels, and while Judge has struggled -- batting .186 with a 34.5% strikeout rate versus southpaws this season -- Hamels hasn't been getting right-handed bats out very much either.
Right-handed hitters have a .379 wOBA against Hamels over 87 total batters when he pitches in Arlington this season. With that in mind, our models are very bullish on Judge tonight, projecting him for 3.6 runs, hits, and RBI.
Jonathan Lucroy WILL Record a Hit (-200)
While Jonathan Lucroy struggled some in the first few weeks of the season, those issues look far behind him. The Oakland Athletics' catcher is batting .302 in the month of May and with the A's up against Mike Leake, Lucroy looks primed to record a hit.
Lucroy is 20-for-41 (.488) lifetime against Leake, with 2 home runs, 5 extra-base hits, and 8 RBI. He comes into Tuesday on a day's rest and having hit safely in five of his last seven games. For Tuesday, our models project him for just over 1 total hit, with a 0.77 chance of hitting a single.