3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 5/21/18
Prop betting odds can be useful in daily fantasy sports to help gauge the potential performance of a player on any given night in the MLB. Likewise, the same principles can be applied in the opposite direction -- by using our fantasy projections and models to help make more informed prop bets.
Please note that Vegas lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Freddie Freeman OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+110)
Freeman has dominated pitchers of both handedness this season, but he has done most of his run production versus right-handers. Freeman has 77 combined runs, hits, and RBIs over 137 plate appearances against righties this year, which is an average of 1 run, hit or RBI every 1.78 plate appearances. Left-handed hitters own a .342 wOBA over 90 batters versus Pivetta this season, and our models project Freeman for a combined 3.05 runs, hits, and RBIs, making him a sweet value at this line.
Jurickson Profar WILL NOT Record A Hit (+135)
Tanaka is holding left-handed hitters to a .272 wOBA over 81 total batters faced this season, and Profar owns just a .250 wOBA over 122 plate appearances batting left-handed against righties. Our models are projecting Profar for only 0.81 hits.
Jose Abreu OVER 2.5 Runs, Hits, and RBI (+120)
There are few players tonight whom our models like more than Jose Abreu when it comes to collecting FanDuel points, but Abreu also seems to be a fine prop selection based on our projections.
Abreu is at home versus Andrew Cashner and the Baltimore Orioles, and the Chicago White Sox's first baseman has crushed right-handed pitching this season. He owns a .386 wOBA and .226 isolated power versus right-handers, and he's got a total of 76 runs, hits, and RBIs over 140 plate appearances in the split. Our models are projecting Abreu for 2.87 runs, hits, and RBIs on Monday.