MLB Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 7/30/13
We know that people play all sorts of fantasy platforms, not just from from our friends at StarStreet but on other platforms such as FanDuel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud as well. So once again, we have four optimized rosters, all for you, the numberFire reader. One is for free here; the others can be found in our Premium section.
As always, the full tables for today's action are available at our Daily Fantasy Projections page. Make sure to check it out to see where the best values are for your team.
Our baseball projections are updated throughout the day, so make sure to come back to double-check your optimized rosters for any last-minute lineup changes. Since most action happens later in the day, we will be ignoring the early games (if there are any) and focusing solely on the late contests. That way, you can use and tinker with our optimized rosters throughout the day.
StarStreet Optimized Roster
Fan Duel, Draft Kings, and Fantasy Feud Optimized Rosters
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The Top Three Pitchers
Anibal Sanchez - Still stuck in No Coverage Land with the love Scherzer has been getting (and the, um, attention for Verlander as well), we're fully committed here at numberFire to helping you remember everything you might have forgotten about Sanchez. Absurdly high 27.7 percent strikeout rate? Check. Very low 1.2 percent homerun rate? Check. Lower than average 7.0 percent walk rate? Check. A Washington opponent with the third-worst OBP and tenth-worst slugging percentage? Check. Why, if not for his slightly high .322 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed, Sanchez would be a perfect pitcher tonight. We'll take the good numbers with glee.
Alex Wood - Call it the Curse of the Small Sample Size if you want, but you're not going to do better than Alex Wood's 0.61 projected wins today. I'm actually not sure you're going to on any day. And why are we so high on a player that doesn't have a single win in his entire MLB career? It may have something to do with that 27.9 percent strikeout rate, zero total homeruns allowed, and 31 percent of hitters taken to an 0-2 count through 26.1 IP this season. Sure, Colorado's league-leading 26 percent line drive rate cuts right into Wood's main weakness, but for such a low cost across the board, I'd take the risk if you desire a mid-priced pitcher.
Dan Straily - Once you get past Sanchez and Wood's values, the waters start to get a little bit murky. The next two names on our list are Mat Latos and Dan Straily, but since Straily is a lower cost almost across the board, he represents the higher value proposition. With his 19.1 percent strikeout rate, he may not rack up the K's of Latos, but where Straily can really help you is his 0.22 projected lower ERA and 0.10 projected lower WHIP. The Blue Jays' main strength is hitting homeruns, but Straily has only allowed a 2.1 percent homerun rate this year, and only 5.4 percent of his fly balls allowed have gone out of the park.
Top High-Priced Hitters
Carlos Gonzalez - Yeah, we like Wood, but I also mentioned that line drive rate as a potential downfall. Too bad Carlos Gonzalez is leading all qualified major league hitters with 31 percent of his balls in play being line drives, leading to an absurd .373 BABIP (which may even be sustainable given his .351 career average). It's a little tough to argue that his .338 projected average isn't going to happen tonight, and I'm not betting against his 0.27 projected homeruns or 0.82 projected RBIs either. Both he and Cuddyer (who I'm just not highlighting for the third straight article) are excellent plays.
Adam Jones - But Bud Norris is supposed to be the ace of the Astros staff! Right, tell that to his 16.6 percent strikeout rate, 24 percent line drive rate, and .319 BABIP. For a pitcher who is allowing four percent more hitters than the league average to get a ball in play, those last two numbers are especially deadly. Jones' .323 BABIP and 72 percent in-play rate himself should be able to shine tonight. And even though Norris isn't known for allowing too many bombs, Jones' power still has him second among all batters with 0.33 projected HR.
Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters
Buster Posey - We've gone away from Buster Posey for a bit recently in favor of cheaper options like Jonathan Lucroy and A.J. Pierzynski, but all his recent 0-for-18 slump has done is send his cost plummeting back down to earth. You better believe we're going to take advantage. This is the guy that still holds a .379 OBP, .320 BABIP, and a 74 percent in-play rate. Meanwhile, opposing starter John Lannan has allowed a .317 BABIP and a 77 percent in-play rate, a full nine percent above the league average. Don't worry about recent history; I'll take the larger sample sizes every time.
Adrian Beltre - Comparable to both David Wright and Miguel Cabrera's projections tonight, but almost 20 percent cheaper across the board. That's the Ballad of Adrian Beltre tonight, with the premier showing coming against former teammate C.J. Wilson. Sure, Wilson's got a pretty good 1.7 percent homerun rate and 21.5 percent strikeout rate, but his walk rate and BABIP are right around the MLB average. Luckily for Beltre, that 24 percent line drive rate and .305 BABIP of his matches up nicely, and even with a slightly lowered 0.26 projected HR, his .315 projected average carries him to the top.