MLB

Fantasy Baseball: 5 Hitters Due for Negative Home Run Regression in 2019

Matt Kupferle  —  @MKupferle Feb 22nd, 2019
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Ian Desmond, 1B/OF, Colorado Rockies

2018 - Home Runs: 22 (64th), FB: 21.5%, HR/FB: 24.7%

Has there ever been a quieter 20-20 season than Ian Desmond 's 22-homer, 20-steal campaign as a member of the Colorado Rockies in 2018? You would be hard pressed to say so.

Signing with Colorado prior to the 2017 season, Desmond has been a bit of a fantasy disappointment. After hitting 88 homers in his last four seasons as a member of the Washington Nationals, and another 22 as part of the Texas Rangers, an injury-plagued 2018 campaign saw Desmond slide to only seven long balls over 374 plate appearances and a .100 isolated power (ISO).

Last season was far better, but it might've been a flash in the pan. Desmond's ISO mark returned to a healthier .186, but he posted the second-lowest fly-ball rate of his career, paired with the highest HR/FB of his career, which nearly doubled his 2017 rate (13.2%). In his two seasons as a Rockie, Desmond has traded fly-balls for ground-balls, posting 60-plus percent ground-ball rates (62.7% and 62.0%, respectively).

Desmond never posted a 20% HR/FB prior to 2018, so if he returns back to either league average or only his career average (14.7%), expect his homer output to hit the brakes, which is reflected in our projection of 17 home runs for 2019.

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