Which MLB Teams Are Expected to Rise and Fall the Most in 2017?
Teams Most Likely to Regress
Each of the four teams below are expected to play some October baseball this year -- none have lower than a 71.6% chance of making the postseason -- but our algorithms are projecting a fair amount of negative regression here.
| Team | 2016 W-L |
2016 nERD |
Proj W-L |
Proj nERD |
Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 91-71 | 0.91 | 88-74 | 0.70 | -0.21 |
| Washington Nationals | 95-67 | 0.98 | 88-74 | 0.75 | -0.23 |
| Boston Red Sox | 93-69 | 1.29 | 90-72 | 1.03 | -0.26 |
| Chicago Cubs | 103-58 | 1.87 | 92-70 | 1.11 | -0.76 |
Team With the Best Shot at Exceeding Expectations: Chicago Cubs
Yes, losing Dexter Fowler is a big loss on the field and in the clubhouse, but this club is still stacked up the wazoo.
Chicago also had the luxury of seeing all five of their starters make at least 29 appearances last season, and it's the position player side of the ball that really makes this team scary. The offense posted a collective 106 wRC+ last season, which was best in the National League, along with being the best defensive club in baseball.
With guys like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, and others still awfully young, it's easy to see this club be just as dominant as they were last year. They also get the added luxury of being in the NL Central, which means playing the Reds and Milwaukee Brewers -- two rebuilding clubs -- a total of 38 times this season.
Team With the Best Shot at Falling Short: Boston Red Sox
Even with players like Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogaerts still around, the offense is going to take a hit without David Ortiz manning the cleanup spot. Adding Chris Sale to the rotation was a big-time move this offseason, but the possibility of an extended absence from David Price could very easily have a trickle-down effect on the club.
Most Surprising Team to See Here: Los Angeles Dodgers
While the Los Angeles Dodgers did have a ton of holes to fill this offseason, they filled them all by re-signing Justin Turner, Rich Hill, and Kenley Jansen, along with acquiring Logan Forsythe to play second base.
They have a very deep roster, which was showcased last year when they put a record number of players on the disabled list and still managed to win the National League West.
