Which MLB Teams Are Expected to Rise and Fall the Most in 2017?
Teams Least Likely to Change Significantly
A new season brings new opportunities, but our projections say that the performance of these 13 teams shouldn't be all that much different from an efficiency perspective than 2016.
The Baltimore Orioles have the biggest anticipated boost with a difference of about 42 runs over the course of the season, while the Detroit Tigers are expected to lose 24 runs.
| Team | 2016 W-L |
2016 nERD |
Proj W-L |
Proj nERD |
Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 89-73 | 0.13 | 81-81 | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| New York Yankees | 84-78 | 0.01 | 78-84 | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 68-94 | -0.06 | 77-85 | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 86-76 | 0.52 | 86-76 | 0.67 | 0.15 |
| Chicago White Sox | 78-84 | -0.21 | 76-86 | -0.06 | 0.15 |
| New York Mets | 87-75 | 0.34 | 84-78 | 0.46 | 0.12 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 73-89 | -0.30 | 75-87 | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| Seattle Mariners | 86-76 | 0.56 | 85-77 | 0.59 | 0.03 |
| Cleveland Indians | 94-67 | 0.93 | 90-72 | 0.94 | 0.01 |
| San Francisco Giants | 87-75 | 0.63 | 87-75 | 0.59 | -0.04 |
| San Diego Padres | 68-94 | -0.51 | 70-92 | -0.63 | -0.12 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 89-73 | 0.83 | 85-77 | 0.70 | -0.13 |
| Detroit Tigers | 86-75 | 0.44 | 81-81 | 0.29 | -0.15 |
Team With the Best Shot at Exceeding Expectations: New York Mets
Remember those If/Then statements you had to deal with in geometry class back in grade school? It'll come in handy with regard to explaining the 2017 outlook for the New York Mets.
Yes, re-signing Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker were important for the offense while also bolstering the bullpen, but this team will go as far as their rotation will carry them. And while this group easily has the potential to be the best in baseball, it'll depend on whether or not all the pitchers coming off season-ending surgeries can stay on the field.
So far, everything has gone relatively smooth, and if this group can stay together as well as, say the Toronto Blue Jays did last year, then they have the ability to outperform the above projection easily.
Team With the Best Shot at Falling Short: Toronto Blue Jays
The offense won't be the same without Edwin Encarnacion in the middle of it, but this is mostly geared toward the starting rotation.
This group posted a 15.3 fWAR last season, which was tops in the American League. They did it off the strength of having five hurlers (Marco Estrada, Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, R.A. Dickey and Aaron Sanchez) take the hill for at least 29 starts. That's the kind of consistency every team dreams of and rarely gets.
Toronto could very easily get that kind of dependability out of their group again, but there's more pressure on them to perform. The offense should still be good, but it doesn't look the same as it used to in recent years.
Most Surprising Team to See Here: Cleveland Indians
With one of baseball's best starting rotations, the Indians went beyond their comfort zone to swing Edwing and bolster what was already a pretty good offense after watching Mike Napoli hit free agency. Improving on a 94-win season that included a 0.93 nERD isn't exactly a walk in the park, but Cleveland has a shot at doing it -- especially if they can get a healthy and productive Michael Brantley back in the outfield and lineup on an everyday basis.
