MLB

Which MLB Teams Are Expected to Rise and Fall the Most in 2017?

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Teams Most Likely to Improve

This is the time of year where just about every MLB team feels they have a chance (in some ways, at least) to improve upon what they accomplished last season. Optimism is necessary during Spring Training, but who is actually expected to get better?

The below table displays each team's record and nERD rating from 2016, along with their projected record and nERD for this year. The final column shows the difference between the nERD ratings.

These 13 teams are each expected to improve by 0.34 or more runs per game, which would mean a difference of at least 55 runs from the year before.

Team 2016
W-L
2016
nERD
Proj
W-L
Proj
nERD
Difference
Philadelphia Phillies 71-91 -1.04 73-89 -0.31 0.73
Arizona Diamondbacks 69-93 -0.75 78-84 -0.04 0.71
Houston Astros 84-78 0.06 87-75 0.75 0.69
Los Angeles Angels 74-88 -0.51 78-84 0.15 0.66
Kansas City Royals 81-81 -0.55 78-84 0.03 0.58
Minnesota Twins 59-103 -0.87 73-89 -0.31 0.56
Cincinnati Reds 68-94 -0.90 73-89 -0.35 0.55
Atlanta Braves 68-93 -0.48 78-84 0.06 0.54
Texas Rangers 95-67 -0.17 82-80 0.36 0.53
Oakland Athletics 69-93 -0.48 76-86 0.04 0.52
Colorado Rockies 75-87 -0.49 79-83 0.03 0.52
Miami Marlins 79-82 -0.20 81-81 0.20 0.40
Pittsburgh Pirates 78-83 -0.25 79-83 0.09 0.34


Team With the Best Shot at Exceeding Expectations: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates just barely squeak onto this list with an expected lift of 0.34 nERD from last season, and despite not making major moves this winter, they could easily outperform this in 2017.

Sure, they may not be able to challenge the Cubs at the top of the division, but their pitching staff -- specifically the starting rotation -- looks much better than it did the year before. A healthy Gerrit Cole will be leading the way, followed by a full year of Jameson Taillon and Ivan Nova, with Tyler Glasnow currently projected to be waiting in the wings.

Another area of improvement that shouldn't go overlooked is the change in outfield alignment, which puts Gregory Polanco in left field, Starling Marte in center, and Andrew McCutchen in right. After McCutchen cost the team a league-worst 28 runs with his defense, any kind of realignment would be helpful.

Team With the Best Shot at Falling Short: Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are still in the midst of a rebuilding process, but it also doesn't seem as if they're close to being finished.

While the improved on-base ability from Billy Hamilton last year is encouraging for the offense, they'll also be leaning heavily on Jose Peraza and a bullpen that was historically bad last year despite not making any major improvements -- even if they try doing something radical.

Most Surprising Team to See Here: Texas Rangers

Of the 13 teams highlighted here, there are only two projected to have a worse record in 2017 despite a boost in nERD. However, the drop for the Texas Rangers is rather noticeable, going from a 95-win division champ to barely a .500 club.

They were unique last year in the fact that they were the only postseason participant to produce a negative nERD, so it's not surprising to see a projected record that anticipates so much regression.

The biggest area of concern for Texas lies in the starting rotation. Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels should continue to be solid, but the rest is a little dicey. They signed Tyson Ross, who is still recovering from thoracic outlet surgery, and Andrew Cashner, whose 4.88 projected ERA is the highest among pitchers expected to throw at least 150 innings.