US Open Third Round Betting Guide: Friday 9/2/22

Jack Draper is making some early noise in the tournament after upsetting a top-10 player. Can he notch another win over a seeded opponent?

The US Open is underway, and all eyes are on Serena Williams in what's expected to be the last tournament of her career.

But we should see plenty of other storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than making some wagers on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The third round begins on Friday. Which matches have the most betting value?

Jack Draper (-144) over Karen Khachanov

Conventional wisdom would normally point to picking Karen Khachanov in this matchup, but we could be on the verge of witnessing a breakout run from a potential rising star in Jack Draper.

In the second round, Draper steamrolled Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 in a dominant straight sets victory, and the Brit's yet to lose a set in this tournament and has dropped serve just once. Not only is Auger-Aliassime the No. 8 player in the world, but he was a semifinalist at last year's US Open.

This is the 20-year-old's second win over a top-10 opponent, too, as he also defeated Stephanos Tsitsipas in Montreal. Overall, he went 6-3 on hard courts this summer, making the quarterfinals at both Montreal and Winston-Salem.

Of course, the 31st-ranked Khachanov is no slouch, but he comes in on shakier form than Draper.

Khachanov had a 2-3 hard-court record in the summer lead-up, which included getting bounced in the second round at Montreal and the first round at Cincinnati. The Russian also needed to go four sets in both of his US Open matches, and neither opponent was ranked in the top 60.

He also has a solid but unspectacular 54.7% win percentage in ATP-level matches on the surface, and he's never made it past the third round of the US Open.

Overall, this feels like a reasonable number to side with Draper as the slight favorite, and if you want to make a bigger splash, you might even consider Jack Draper 3-0 (+330) in case he keeps his straight-sets streak alive.

Bianca Andreescu (+118) over Caroline Garcia

This admittedly feels a little risky considering Caroline Garcia just won a championship at Cincinnati, but Bianca Andreescu certainly has the credentials to pull off the upset.

The 2019 US Open champion, Andreescu has an impressive 71.4% win percentage on tour-level hard courts in her young career, and she made it to the Round of 16 in last year's tournament.

While the Canadian only went 2-2 in hard-court tune-ups between San Jose and Toronto, she's coming off a decisive 6-2, 6-4 second-round victory over 15th-ranked Beatriz Haddad Maia. Maia was a red-hot player for much of the summer, making it to the Toronto final and winning grass titles at Nottingham and Birmingham.

There's no doubt that Garcia will be a tough out, though. In her run to the Cincinnati title, she earned wins over top-10 players Maria Sakkari, Jessica Pegula, and Aryna Sabalenka. She's had an incredible 2022 campaign overall, going 35-15 and winning three different singles titles.

It's worth noting, though, that hard courts have historically been Garcia's weakest surface, as she has just a career 52.6% win percentage in the split. Additionally, she's found limited success at the US Open, never making it past the third round in her nine prior main draw appearances.

The two did meet for the first time earlier this year, with Garcia defeating Andreescu in three sets in the Bad Homburg grass final.

However, playing on a hard court should even the playing field for Andreescu. Per Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, this is a near-even matchup on this surface, but Andreescu gets a slight edge with a 51.3% win probability.

Seeing as this should be a tightly-contested match, even if you're willing to back Andreescu, it's easy to see this going the distance, so Bianca Andreescu wins the match and both players win a set (+340) is a way to spice things up.

Alternatively, if Garcia's recent form scares you, a safer play is taking Over Total Sets 2.5 (+108) in order to wager on this matchup without picking a winner.