MISC

Wimbledon Women's Final Betting Guide: Saturday 7/15/23

Kenyatta Storin  —  @KenyattaStorin Jul 14th, 2023
Ons Jabeur has come up short in her previous Grand Slam finals, including last year's Wimbledon. Can she close the deal against Marketa Vondrousova to take home her first major title?

Perhaps the most revered of the four Grand Slams, we're nearing the end of another fantastic Wimbledon. What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The tournament continues on Saturday morning. How should we bet the women's finals on Day 13?

Marketa Vondrousova vs. Ons Jabeur

Ons Jabeur -3.5 Games (-114)

After knocking on the door twice in Grand Slam finals last year but just coming up short -- including last year's Wimbledon -- it really feels like Ons Jabeur's time has arrived. Third time's the charm, right?

Following her semifinal win over Aryna Sabalenka, Jabeur has now knocked out four Grand Slam champions in a row, with Elena Rybakina, Petra Kvitova, and Bianca Andreescu being the other three.

Ons' wins over Rybakina and Sabalenka were particularly notable. She got her revenge against Rybakina in a rematch of the 2022 Wimbledon final, and then she broke a three-match losing streak versus Sabalenka. In both matches, Jabeur lost the first set on a tiebreak but demonstrated the resiliency to come back and win consecutive sets.

Marketa Vondrousova proved me wrong by upsetting Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals and then dominating Elina Svitolina pretty much from start to finish in the semifinals. As Jabeur noted herself in her last on-court interview, Vondrousova has had her number this season, too, beating her twice already at the Australian Open and Indian Wells.

But prior to this season, Jabeur had defeated Vondrousova three straight times, one of which came on grass at Eastbourne in 2021. While Vondrousova seems to have finally figured out the grass-courts puzzle after previously being 1-4 at this tournament, this is Jabeur's third deep run at Wimbledon in the last three years, and particularly after coming up just one win short of the title in 2022, I don't see her letting this opportunity slip by again.

While Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings haven't adjusted for this tournament yet, Jabeur entered with the Tour's sixth-best grass-adjusted score, and that figures to only go up after racking up wins over three players rated higher than her (Rybakina, Kvitova, and Sabalenka).

While the 3.5-game spread doesn't leave too much room for error in a best-of-three contest, she covered this line in each of the last two matches despite dropping a set in each, so we have to like her chances of doing so again versus a lower-ranked opponent.