Belmont Horse Racing Picks for Sunday 9/19/21
As always, check for scratches and changes and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Creative Legacy, Race 5
FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/1
Race 5 is a claiming race for fillies and mares at 6 1/2 furlongs. The two favorites will get bet, but neither Quantitvative Breezin (2/1) nor Seascape (5/2) offer enough to bet at low odds despite leading jockeys Jose Ortiz and brother Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding.
That pushes me to Creative Legacy (6/1). The recent form looks poor, but she was facing better fields and runners each time. A trainer change along with a jockey who can get her to break quickly, and this filly should run better at a price.
Cartwheel, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 4/1
Race 8 is an Allowance race for state-bred fillies and mares at 7 furlongs. numberFire's algorithm projects Brattle House (2/1) and Cartwheel (4/1) to decide the race with Ifihadachance (5/2) also hitting the board.
A $775K yearling purchase, Brattle House is favored off a layoff. She’s nearly perfect in three starts and was beaten by only a classy runner.
Cartwheel has tactical speed and fits well here. She’ll likely be forwardly placed, and front runners were winning at a very high rate Saturday. She was claimed by trainer Mertkan Kantamaci last race, and he’s an underrated trainer. Cartwheel is the only horse in the seven-horse field offered at an optional claiming tag of $45K.
Plum Ali and Runaway Rumour, Race 9
FanDuel Racing Odds: 9/2 and 6/1
Race 9 is the $100K Pebble Stakes for three-year-old fillies at 1 mile on the turf. The numberFire model projects the favorite, Plum Ali (9/2), to win over longshots Third Draft (2/1) and Spanish Loveaffair (12/1).
Plum Ali is dropping in class following some improved fractions, per Horse Racing Radar. She is still winless in four graded stakes starts this year.
Third Draft is improving and broke her maiden over this track in May. She has in-the-money finishes in all six starts this year with two wins, and she was runner-up in her stakes debut last time out.
Runaway Rumour (6/1) has won 3-of-5 this year and also drops down from a pair of graded stakes races.