NFL Betting Guide: Week 2
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Over 47.5: 4-Star Rating out of 5
The Week 1 Houston Texans looked nothing like a team that came into their game as 3.0-point underdogs to rookie Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Behind an efficient 291 passing yards, 40 rushing yards, and 2 scores by journeyman Tyrod Taylor, the Texans walked away from NRG stadium as 37-21 winners. While we don't see them pulling out a victory in Week 2, our model predicts that they and the Cleveland Browns will make it a scoring fest.
The Browns looked unstoppable at times in last week's loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, especially their run game; Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined for 116 yards and 3 scores on the ground to go with another 46 yards through the air. The tailback hydra should be salivating at the chance to take on the Texans.
Houston held Jacksonville to just 76 yards on the ground last week, but that number was really more reflective of Jags coach Urban Meyer's reluctance to use James Robinson and Carlos Hyde against a Texans defense that gave up 160.3 rushing yards per game in 2020, the most in the league last year. Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski is not going to hold back in the same way. numberFire has Chubb and Hunt projected to combine for 141.0 yards on 27.7 carries, 33.1 receiving yards on 3.7 receptions, and 1.5 scores.
numberFire projects the teams to combine for 53.7 points in their Week 2 clash, with the Browns pulling out a comfortable victory. We give the over a 67.0% chance of hitting. With an expected return of 27.9%, we mark the bet as a four-star play, and it is currently our top bet of the slate.
Cardinals -3.5: 1-Star Rating out of 5
Cardinals Moneyline (-190): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Supported by five Kyler Murray touchdowns, the Arizona Cardinals started their season in electric fashion with a 38-13 away victory over the Tennessee Titans. They head home for Week 2, where they will host the Minnesota Vikings, who were 27-24 overtime losers to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. Our model foresees the Vikings heading back to Minneapolis 0-2 and questioning whether Andrew DePaola really is "the answer to the ultimate question of life, the universe, and everything."
The Cards were underdogs in their surprising Week 1 rout, and they find themselves favored by 3.5 points this Sunday. In the past 15 instances of a home favorite coming off a win as an away 'dog, home favorites are 10-5 straight up (SU) and 8-6-1 against the spread (ATS). Home favorites in games with totals greater than 50 coming off wins of at least 25 points are 13-2 SU in the past five seasons.
Our model gives the Cardinals a 67.6% chance of winning and a 54.2% chance of covering the spread. With expected returns of 3.2% and 3.5%, respectively, we mark both bets as one-star plays.
Under 54.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating out of 5
In Week 1, the Tennessee Titans were favored by 2.5 points over the Arizona Cardinals in a game that implied them to score 27.5 points, 3.2 points below their 2020 per-game average. Thanks to a suffocating Cardinals defense -- led by Chandler Jones' five sacks -- the Titans walked away with just 13 points in a 25-point loss. Their reward is to travel to Washington to take on a Seattle Seahawks team that is coming off a strong 28-16 road win over the Indianapolis Colts.
Despite Kyler Murray's heroics in the Cardinals' win over the Titans, the teams' combined 51 points still resulted in under bettors taking home a win in that Titans-Cards clash. Our model indicates that those betting the under for the Titans' Week 2 game are likely to be in the green again.
The under has hit in four straight and five of the last six away games in which the Titans previously lost as favorites. The average total points scored in those six games was a staggering 11.7 points under the average total. The under has hit five of the last seven times an underdog lost their previous game by more than 20 points when favored.
numberFire projects the Titans and the Seahawks to combine for 50.7 points in Week 2. We give the under a 61.8% chance of hitting and mark the bet as a two-star play.