Keeneland Breeders’ Cup Horse Racing Picks for Saturday 11/7/20
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 10:15 a.m. EST, we have 14 races at Keeneland. Using numberFire’s projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Art Collector and Pirate’s Punch, Race 6
FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/1 and 20/1
Friday was a great day on these pages as Breeders’ Cup bettors enjoyed three winners in four races plus a runner-up finish. One of the winners was a 30/1 longshot in Race 7, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and we also hit on the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner at 7/2 odds. Both exactas in those races had big payoffs.
Race 6 is the Breeders’ Cup Mile, and numberFire projects Complexity (2/1) to win and press the pace of Knicks Go (7/2), who also is expected to hit the board. However, Super Screener anticipates both runners to fall off of a fast pace while pegging Art Collector (6/1) to have a shot to hit the wire first along with sneaky longshot Pirate’s Punch (20/1).
Art Collector didn’t fire his best when finishing a distant fourth in the Preakness but won five straight races prior. Pirate’s Punch will sit just behind the leaders but has a solid shot to hit the board and has done so in nine of his last 10 starts. There is some solid value on Pirate’s Punch, Art Collector and Owendale (8/1), who is a closer and can cash in with expected fast fractions. Owendale is 2-for-2 at the 1-mile distance and comes off a pair or runner-up finishes and strong 102 speed figures. Include Owendale in trifecta wagering.
Yaupon and Diamond Oops, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 7/2 and 8/1
Race 8 is the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at 6 furlongs, and Yaupon (7/2) is the projected winner, according to numberFire's data. Horse Racing Radar notes 30-of-39 winners during the Keeneland meet at this distance won after running first or second at the announcers first call. Yaupon is undefeated in four starts, all at this distance. But C Z Rocket (7/2) will try to win his sixth straight race, and he’s 2-for-2 at Keeneland and a projected in-the-money finisher along with Diamond Oops (8/1), who rates as solid value. Diamond Oops is the projected upset winner, per Super Screener.
Improbable and Maximum Security, Race 12
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2 and 7/2
Race 12 is the $6 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles. It's a highly competitive group, and a case can be made for up to seven horses to win. Many of them will show speed and likely press the pace, including Improbable (5/2), who is the top pick of numberFire followed by Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law (3/1) and Kentucky Derby winner Authentic (6/1). Tiz the Law is freshened, last running two months ago in the Kentucky Derby and finishing second. Improbable is in peak form with three straight wins, including back-to-back 120 speed figures.
A horse getting more attention as the race nears is Tom’s d’Etat (6/1), who Guaranteed Tip Sheet likes to hit the board and challenge for the win. He stumbled at the start as the favorite in his last race and finished third behind winner Improbable. By My Standards (10/1) has finished in the money in 11 starts on a fast track. Maximum Security (7/2) is a Super Screener board hitter who can win with proven speed and balanced distribution from off the pace, which will likely be set by Authentic and others. Maximum Security has won 10-of-12 starts, including 3-for-4 this year with a runner-up to Improbable last start.
