Keeneland Breeders’ Cup Horse Racing Picks for Friday 11/6/20
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 11:30 p.m. EST, we have 12 races at Keeneland. Using numberFire’s projections and Daily Horse Picks as guides, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions.)
Bodenheimer and Golden Pal, Race 6
FanDuel Racing Odds: 8/1 and 5/2
All the Friday Breeders’ Cup races are for two-year-olds, and the first one is Race 6 – the Juvenile Turf Sprint at 5 ½ furlongs. Trainer Wesley Ward has four runners in the race, as well as potential alternates. His best is the favorite on the far outside No. 14 post, Golden Pal (8/5), the top pick and projected winner of numberFire's models. He’s a push-button speedster and an absolute freakish horse who will have to break quickly to gain position from the outside. He's had a win and two runner-up finishes in three starts, including a 98 speed figure in winning his most recent stakes race in August with ease. Golden Pal is working super in the mornings at Keeneland and is the one to beat with jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. raving about him and riding this son of Uncle Mo.
Bodenheimer (8/1) is 3-for-4 with a win over this track a month ago. Horse Racing Radar notes his 99 speed figure is the top last-race speed figure in this field. He won wire-to-wire and held off a late-charging Cowan (8/1), who is improving and coming around at the right time. Cowan also has some very sharp works over the track in preparation for this big race and should be included in Exacta and Trifecta wagering. Dirty Dangle (20/1) is an undefeated filly and longshot who is improving and capable, with a pair of wins in two starts at Woodbine.
Cadillac and Fire At Will, Race 7
FanDuel Racing Odds: 6/1 and 12/1
Race 7 is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at 1-mile. numberFire algorithm and Super Screener project Battleground (6/1) to win. Battleground has not raced since July but won his last two races in Great Britain. He's one to include in Exacta and Trifecta wagering.
A main challenger by the odds is Mutasaabeq (5/1), who runs for EPO trainer Todd Pletcher. Mutasaabeq won over this turf track a month ago and was way back in 11th place at the three-quarter market before a big turn of foot got him home more than two-lengths in front.
Cadillac (IRE) is 6/1 on the morning line, and Horse Racing Radar says he joins Battleground as the best of the international entrants. Cadillac offers value and is one to include in horizontal and vertical wagers, as well. Cadillac crushed Ebeko (20/1) in his debut and then dusted a very good horse two races back -- horses he’s beaten have come back to win other races.
A bigger-priced horse that offers value, according to Super Screener top picks, is Fire At Will (12/1). He was paced-advantaged in his most recent race but sets up better off the pace today. Outadore (8/1) is really flourishing in his Keeneland works and has been going heads-up with Race 9 runner Campenelle several times. He’ll be running on or near the lead and might not let up. He's bred for speed but has no route prep races.
Dayoutoftheoffice, Race 8
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/2
Race 7 has the smallest field of seven runners for the Juvenile Fillies at 1 1/16 miles. Tough to not include the Bob Baffert-favorite, Princess Noor (9/5), but she has not faced top competition. numberFire's projections point toward Girl Daddy (6/1) and Dayoutoftheoffice (5/2) leading this one, with Simply Ravishing (5/2) also being a major player. Girl Daddy offers solid value to include in wagers and is working brilliantly leading into the race, according to Super Screener.
Dayoutoftheoffice looks like she’ll move forward after another smashing win last race to beat Vequist (8/1). Simply Ravishing will come with a sustainable run late, according to Super Screener, but the site ranks Dayoutoftheoffice at the top based on their criteria, and they see Vequist as an inclusion with value.
Essential Quality, Race 10
FanDuel Racing Odds: 4/1
Race 10 is the TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles. The favorite and top pick, according to numberFire’s data, is Jackie’s Warrior (7/5), who will be the most bet horse of the day. The Steve Asmussen-trained juvenile is ridden by strong stretch-rider Joel Rosario. Jackie’s Warrior is 4-for-4 and has won a pair of Grade 1 races already, including a 5 ¼ length win over Reinvestment Risk (4/1) a month ago. Include underneath in exotic and horizontal wagering, but we’ll still try to beat with better value, and there are other speed horses to press him hard.
Essential Quality (4/1) is undefeated in two starts with a sharp improvement in his last race. He’s beaten closer King Fury (15/1), who offers value, and KeepmeInMind (30/1). Essential Quality is the top pick of Guaranteed Tip Sheet, and he has plenty of room for improvement. Identifying those runners ready to move forward and getting value is key to betting and profiting in horse racing. Jockey Luis Saez says he’s a machine that doesn’t tire, and EPO trainer Brad Cox says Essential Quality is much more mature now than when winning his initial races.
