Parx Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday 8/18/20
It's a great time to dive into horse racing, and FanDuel Racing gives you the chance to do just that.
Starting at 12:55 p.m. EST, we have 12 races at Parx. Using our numberFire projections as a guide, here are some of the best bets.
As always, check the program for scratches and changes, and monitor the weather and track conditions.
(I will reference Equibase's Speed Figure in selected races, which tells you how fast a horse has been running in each of its races -- adjusted for track, distances, and conditions).
Penance and She Makes Me Smile, Race 3
FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 20/1
Race 3 is a small Claiming race for fillies and mares racing 1 1/16 miles. The top pick at numberFire is Flippity Flop (6/1), followed by Penance (3/1) and the favorite Big Red Seven (9/5) from the outside No. 8 post.
A great 2-for-3 day Monday included a plus price winner plus a 7/1 runner-up and $175 exacta up/down. Try for more profit at Parx with Penance (3/1), who has missed the money in both starts off a layoff but did beat better here back in January. She chased much quicker and better last month with an improved speed rating.
Big Red Seven (9/5) is still going at age 8 and hit the board in two recent tries since June including third at this level last month. Slower speed figures don’t warrant enough confidence at this price.
Flippity Flop (6/1) did not finish in her race last month off a layoff. She did chase the lead and duel against better with stronger speed figure back in December.
She Makes Me Smile (20/1) is sired by Include, and we’ll do that with her at this price dropping to lowest level. She raced against Stakes company here last fall and has been off since January with a few good recent works making her ready for return against weaker.
Prospective Bell and To the Flag, Race 4
FanDuel Racing Odds: 3/1 and 5/2
Race 4 is a small Waiver Claiming for fillies and mares sprinting 6 furlongs. The top pick of numberFire is Livin A Dream (7/2) followed by Prospective Belle (3/1) and the favorite To The Flag (5/2).
To the Flag (5/2) is a 9-year-old who is winless in her last nine starts the past year. She has hit the board in four straight races with three runner-up finishes. That includes a pair last month chasing fast fractions placing a distance second to the heavy favorite. She was claimed last race by new trainer Ron Dandy.
Prospective Belle (3/1) is stringing three races together and improved her speed rating in a runner-up finish two weeks ago. She's right back at this level and will be running on or near the lead. Best speed figure repeat from November wins this.
Livin a Dream (7/2) is still dreaming of finding the winner’s circle having not been there in her last 16 starts. Third race off a layoff and beaten by 15 lengths at this level three weeks ago.
Morning line oddsmaker has all eight runners priced 8/1 or less. Strange.
Smokin Princess and Fusi, Race 10
FanDuel Racing Odds: 5/1 and 7/2
Race 10 is a moderate Claimer for fillies and mares at 7 furlongs. Guaranteed Tip Sheet has a best bet on Smokin Princess (5/1) to upset the favorite Mucha Muchacha. Also, numberFire has the same order of finish.
Smokin Princess has just one win in 18 starts but four runner-up finishes in six 2020 starts. This is the third race off a layoff, and she missed as the favorite last out. She was claimed by a new barn before the pandemic and is ready to break through.
Mucha Muchacha (5/2) had back-to-back runner-up finishes last month at this level and price.
Angel Raphael (10/1) cuts back in distance for her third race off a layoff. Toss out the last race on turf. She can improve and compete. Fusi (7/2) also failed badly on turf two weeks ago but won wire-to-wire on dirt against much better five weeks ago.
