GOLF

Daily Fantasy Golf Helper: Butterfield Bermuda Championship

With a short course this week, which golfers get a bump in expected daily fantasy performance at Port Royal Golf Course?

By now, you've probably dabbled in daily fantasy sports, but if not, don't worry. Now is a great time to start, especially with FanDuel's daily fantasy golf offering.

Golf can be one of the most exciting DFS sports to follow, as tournaments span four days and allow ample time to prepare each week. It's a great balance between time to research and time spent tracking your team.

But whether you're brand new to the PGA or daily fantasy sports in general, we have you covered -- and we have daily fantasy golf projections and lineup building tools, too.

Let's take a look at some golfers to target this week.

Key Stats for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship

- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- Driving Accuracy
- Birdie or Better Rate
- Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda

For a more detailed breakdown of the course, check out my course primer.

Daily Fantasy Golfer Picks for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship

All stats cited below originate at FantasyNational. Strokes gained data includes stats from the past calendar year and is adjusted based on my field strength and recency tweaks. Putting surface splits also come from FantasyNational and include the past 50 rounds when possible -- unless noted. All ranks and percentile ranks are among the field. References to my combo model refer to a combination of long-term, field-adjusted form, key stat performance, and hole-by-hole-level strokes gained data.

Best of the Best

Matt Fitzpatrick (FanDuel Salary: $11,900 | FanDuel Sportsbook Win Odds: +1000) - Sure, Fitzpatrick will likely project as the most popular golfer in the field, but he has the absolute best case of anyone in the field to convert as a favorite. He's the best long-term golfer in my database (after recency and field-strength adjustments), he is an accurate driver (97th percentile in fairways gained), and he's one of the best bermuda putters in the field (96th percentile) over the past 100 rounds. Fitzpatrick is the most likely winner, per my model, and we have plenty of value to build around him.

Chad Ramey ($10,700 | +3300) - Ramey actually seems a little under-salaried. He ranks sixth in this field in my adjusted, long-term strokes gained stat and most recently finished T14 at the Shriners Children's Open. He has gained strokes from approach against the field in his three PGA Tour starts this season and ended the Korn Ferry Tour season with four straight top-18 finishes.

Others to Consider:
Patrick Reed ($11,800 | +1800) - Could surge ahead here even if playing back from illness; really big gap in skill level outside of Fitzpatrick and Christiaan Bezuidenhout versus the rest of the field. Value exists, so we can build around two of those three if we want.
Guido Migliozzi ($10,900 | +3300) - Has missed three of past four cuts but lost mega strokes putting in all three; has clear upside.
Denny McCarthy ($10,100 | +4100) - Has finished top-15 here both years; S-tier bermuda putter.

Mid-Range Picks

Hank Lebioda ($9,400 | +6500) - If not for four straight missed cuts (I know, right?), Lebioda would probably be in the second tier of this field. Lebioda's missed cuts have come with reasonable data overall, and he ranks 33rd in datagolf's true strokes gained: tee to green metric over the past 20 rounds as well as 6th in overall strokes gained in that sample. He's finished 3rd and 16th at Port Royal.

Alex Smalley ($9,200 | +6500) - Smalley rates as a strong value option. He finished 47th at the Shriners and 31st at the Sanderson Farms after a missed cut at the Fortinet Championship. This comes after two top-15 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour in August/September. Smalley ultimately ranks 12th over the past six months in datgolf's true strokes gained metric.

Others to Consider:
Ryan Armour ($9,700 | +5000) -
Gets a bump on an accuracy course (99th percentile); has been T8 both years here.
Nick Hardy ($9,400 | +5500) - Is 97th percentile in adjusted tee to green based on limited PGA Tour sample (16 rounds past year); great on Korn Ferry Tour.
Mark Hubbard ($9,200 | +6500) - Tick above the world average in adjusted strokes gained (+0.02), which only 20 golfers in the field can say.

Low-Salaried Picks

Bo Hoag ($8,700 | +8000) - Hoag rates as the best long-term golfer in my database (adjusted for recency and field strength) among all those with a salary below $9,000. Hoag has some of the best ball-striking in the field -- not just among the value plays -- and he's in the 97th percentile in greens in regulation gained over the past 50 rounds. He's also a baseline putter on bermuda greens.

Chase Seiffert ($8,000 | +12000) - Although Seiffert has cooled off since a surge earlier in 2021, the course should suit him well. Seiffert ranks in the 92nd percentile in fairways gained and in the 82nd percentile in strokes gained: approach. He's also got plus putting splits on bermuda greens and has gained an average of 0.12 strokes per round over 65 rounds on Tour. It's a good profile for a value golfer this week.

Others to Consider:
Nick Taylor ($8,900 | +7000) - The short game is good; should get leverage at a course that rewards accuracy.
Austin Eckroat ($8,700 | +7000) - Not very well known but has promising splits in his short PGA Tour and nice adjusted data overall.
Cameron Percy ($8,500 | +10000) - Field leader in greens in regulation over the past 50 rounds but a bad putter.
Vaughn Taylor ($7,900 | +15000) - An accurate driver with 91st-percentile bermuda putting.
Andrew Novak ($7,800 | +15000) - The fourth-best long-term strokes gained player below $9,000.