Gdula's Golf Simulations and Betting Picks: Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Which golfers outperform their betting odds based on a thousand simulations of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship?

Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.

We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.

The Process

Over the years, I have made plenty of tweaks to my original golf model, which uses a combination of the OWGR's field strength numbers and datagolf's field strength numbers to adjust each golfer's score relative to the field (on the PGA Tour, the European Tour, and the Korn Ferry Tour).

The ultimate goal is to place a score from the Waste Management Open, the BMW International Open, and the Knoxville Open on level playing fields. This adjusted strokes metric lets me see how golfers are performing across all tours. From there, a golfer's adjusted stroke data is combined with their round-to-round variance to see how the field is likely to perform when playing out the event thousands of times.

In addition to that long-term adjusted form, I factor in course-level adjustments for course fit.

I run a second model that uses more granular strokes gained data, which allows me to very easily adjust for course fit. The results are averaged out.

I let the data do the talking and don't make many tweaks -- if any. Golfers with a small sample get regressed to a low-end PGA Tour player to round out their samples. Data points are weighted more heavily toward recent performance.

Here are the most likely winners for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, according to the models, as well as their Golf odds win odds.

Golfer FanDuel
Win% Top-
Matt Fitzpatrick$11,9006.9%35.6%84.6%+1000
Patrick Reed$11,8005.0%28.3%80.9%+1800
Seamus Power$11,5003.2%23.5%77.6%+2200
Mito Pereira$11,6002.9%22.6%77.8%+2000
Adam Hadwin$11,0002.7%19.5%74.8%+3100
Chad Ramey$10,7002.6%20.7%76.8%+3300
Hank Lebioda$9,4002.2%17.1%72.6%+6500
Sahith Theegala$10,5002.1%17.1%73.0%+3400
Matthias Schwab$10,8002.1%18.2%74.1%+3300
Alex Smalley$9,2002.1%16.8%72.8%+6500
Stephan Jaeger$9,7002.0%17.2%72.7%+5000
Ryan Armour$9,7001.7%15.4%70.7%+5000
Danny Willett$11,3001.6%14.9%70.6%+2700
Scott Stallings$9,9001.6%14.6%70.9%+4100
Patrick Rodgers$10,3001.6%15.1%70.7%+4100
Taylor Pendrith$10,2001.5%14.7%70.2%+4100
Russell Knox$9,8001.5%14.6%70.7%+5000
Mark Hubbard$9,2001.4%14.5%70.4%+6500
Nick Taylor$8,9001.4%12.4%68.5%+7000
Lucas Herbert$9,5001.4%13.8%69.1%+5500
Nick Hardy$9,4001.4%14.1%69.8%+5500
David Lipsky$9,8001.3%13.3%68.6%+5000
Aaron Rai$9,1001.3%14.5%70.7%+6500
Bo Hoag$8,7001.3%12.5%68.1%+8000
Brian Stuard$8,7001.2%13.2%69.0%+8000
Guido Migliozzi$10,9001.2%12.4%68.1%+3300
Vincent Whaley$8,5001.2%11.9%67.4%+10000
Jason Dufner$9,0001.2%12.9%68.6%+6500
Denny McCarthy$10,1001.1%12.9%68.8%+4100
Adam Svensson$8,1001.1%12.6%68.4%+12000
Andrew Novak$7,8001.1%11.1%66.1%+15000
Joseph Bramlett$9,6001.1%13.6%68.7%+5000
Dylan Frittelli$9,9001.0%10.9%66.8%+5000
Anirban Lahiri$8,8001.0%12.0%66.6%+8000
Peter Uihlein$9,5001.0%11.2%66.3%+5500
Lee Hodges$8,4001.0%10.9%66.0%+10000
Greyson Sigg$8,5001.0%11.2%66.1%+10000
Cameron Percy$8,5000.9%10.1%64.6%+10000
Seth Reeves$8,2000.9%10.3%65.0%+10000
Garrick Higgo$10,4000.9%8.9%62.6%+4100
Thomas Detry$10,0000.9%10.9%66.2%+4100
Matthew NeSmith$9,3000.9%10.4%65.8%+6500
Hayden Buckley$11,2000.8%11.3%66.4%+2700
Austin Eckroat$8,9000.8%9.7%63.6%+7000
Kramer Hickok$8,9000.8%10.7%65.4%+8000
Max McGreevy$8,0000.8%9.1%63.0%+12000
Camilo Villegas$8,3000.7%9.3%63.3%+10000
Vaughn Taylor$7,9000.7%8.5%61.9%+15000
Danny Lee$7,9000.7%8.6%61.8%+15000
Davis Riley$8,6000.7%7.9%61.9%+8000
Chase Seiffert$8,0000.6%7.8%60.9%+12000
Ben Kohles$7,6000.6%8.3%62.2%+21000
Sepp Straka$8,8000.6%7.1%59.5%+8000
David Skinns$7,8000.6%7.6%59.5%+15000
Brandon Hagy$9,0000.6%7.6%59.9%+7000
Erik Barnes$7,4000.6%6.7%59.0%+32000
Dylan Wu$8,2000.6%8.5%62.1%+12000
Beau Hossler$8,7000.6%7.2%60.2%+8000
van der Walt
Kurt Kitayama$8,4000.5%7.4%60.2%+10000
Harry Hall$9,0000.5%7.1%59.7%+6500
Justin Lower$7,9000.5%7.2%59.7%+15000
Luke Donald$8,0000.5%6.3%57.5%+12000
Callum Tarren$7,6000.5%6.4%59.2%+21000
Peter Malnati$9,1000.5%6.6%58.5%+6500

In a field lacking in big names, we don't really have any heavy, heavy favorites, and the man at the top of the betting board and simulations -- Matt Fitzpatrick (+1000) -- is a bit overvalued, according to the simulations.

The same can be said for Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+1400). My numbers have Fitz around +1400 and Bezuidenhout at around +1700.

Patrick Reed (+1800) is a pretty fair value overall and could see his odds shorten the closer we get to Thursday due to his name value relative to the rest of the field. He's my preference at the top of the field -- and the model's as well -- at the number.

Though the model is a tinge low on them, I have interest in Adam Hadwin (+3100) and Chad Ramey (+3300); both rate out well in my stats model for the week.

My sims really like Hank Lebioda (+6500) and would consider him a fair value if he were listed at +4500. He ranks fourth in datagolf's true strokes gained over the past six months among this field.

Other golfers who outperform their win odds include Alex Smalley (+6500), Stephan Jaeger (+5000), Nick Taylor (+7000), Bo Hoag (+8000), Brian Stuard (+8000), and Vincent Whaley (+10000).