Gdula's Golf Simulations and Betting Picks: KPMG Women's PGA Championship

Will Sei Young Kim repeat at the Women's PGA Championship? See who the simulations like for this week's major.

Volatility is the name of the game in golf, and picking winners isn't easy. With fields of 150-plus golfers sometimes being separated by how a putt or two falls each week, predicting golf can be absurdly tough.

We'll never be able to capture everything that goes into a golfer's expectations for a week, but we can try to account for that by simulating out the weekend and seeing what happens.

The Process

Unfortunately, data for the LPGA Tour isn't nearly as robust as it is on other professional golf tours, so these simulations are based on long-term, round-by-round scoring. Each round is adjusted for the field average for the given day and the field strength of the golfers in the tournament.

So, this means we can identify an adjusted strokes gained average for each golfer on the LPGA Tour.

Golfers without a significant sample will have their data regressed to a Tour-average mark to avoid any extreme outliers.

I then simulate out the event a few thousand times to see who is most likely to win and then compare those simulation odds to the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are the most likely winners for the KPMG Women's PGA Championship, according to the model.

Golfer Simulated
Win Odds
Inbee Park7.8%+1400
Sei Young Kim7.4%+1800
Jin Young Ko7.4%+1600
Nelly Korda5.8%+1400
Lydia Ko4.9%+2200
So Yeon Ryu3.9%+1800
Brooke M. Henderson3.8%+2900
Danielle Kang3.4%+2000
Lexi Thompson3.1%+2200
Yuka Saso2.8%+6000
Hyo Joo Kim2.6%+2700
Moriya Jutanugarn2.5%+4100
Ally Ewing2.3%+3400
Carlota Ciganda2.2%+5000
Shanshan Feng2.0%+2700
Minjee Lee1.8%+5000
In Gee Chun1.5%+4500
Hannah Green1.3%+2900
Jessica Korda1.3%+2200
Mel Reid1.3%+10000
Jenny Shin1.2%+5000
Ariya Jutanugarn1.1%+1800
Austin Ernst1.1%+10000
Megan Khang1.0%+5000
Celine Boutier1.0%+5000
Anna Nordqvist0.9%+7000
Emily Kristine Pedersen0.8%+12000
Nasa Hataoka0.8%+4500
Gaby Lopez0.8%+9000
Stacy Lewis0.8%+6000
Jennifer Kupcho0.7%+6000
Jeongeun Lee60.7%+4100
Jodi Ewart Shadoff0.7%+15000
Xiyu Lin0.6%+6500
Min Lee0.6%+10000
Matilda Castren0.6%+7000
Patty Tavatanakit0.6%+2900
Wei-Ling Hsu0.6%+10000
Mina Harigae0.6%+10000
Amy Olson0.5%+6500
Charley Hull0.5%+6500
Caroline Masson0.5%+12000
Sarah Schmelzel0.5%+15000
Nanna Koerstz Madsen0.5%+21000
Georgia Hall0.5%+7000
Angela Stanford0.5%+21000
Angel Yin0.5%+5000
Perrine Delacour0.5%+27000
Brittany Lincicome0.5%+24000
Hinako Shibuno0.5%+12000
Sophia Popov0.4%+12000
Gabriela Ruffels0.4%+24000
Brittany Altomare0.4%+7000
Jennifer Song0.4%+32000
Marina Alex0.4%+10000
Lindsey Weaver0.4%+42000
Leona Maguire0.3%+4100

I don't typically see positive expected value on PGA Tour favorites, but the model sees it for three of the golfers with odds of +2000 or shorter, and that's the top three in the simulations.

Inbee Park (+1400) boasts the best adjusted strokes gained average over the past year on the LPGA Tour, followed closely beind by Sei Young Kim (+1800) and Jin Young Ko (+1600)

Inbee Park has seven career major wins, including three at the Women's PGA Championship and, in total, 12 of 14 made cuts at the event.

Sei Young Kim is yet to finish outside the top 25 in any of her six Women's PGA Championship starts and won it last year by five strokes over Inbee Park, a performance that earned her the single best adjusted strokes gained mark over the past year on the LPGA Tour.

Jin Young Ko has been top 15 in each of her two Women's PGA Championships and has two major wins already.

The model sees two-time major winner Ariya Jutanugarn (+1800) and Jessica Korda (+2200) as overvalued and prefers Lydia Ko (+2200), Brooke Henderson (+2900), and Yuka Saso (+6000) at their numbers.

Some long shots who may be undervalued and who could be in play for top-10 and top-20 bets: Mel Reid (+10000), Carlota Ciganda (+5000), and Moriya Jutanugarn (+4100).