UFC Daily Fantasy Helper: UFC Vegas 69
The Ultimate Fighting Championship holds no short of a dozen mixed martial arts bouts nearly every weekend with no real offseason. As one of the most unique sweats available, UFC daily fantasy is live on FanDuel.
The strategy behind this fantasy sport is intriguing. Given that two fighters face off against each other, and some fights end in seconds, choosing which side to back is crucial, and there is a wide range of outcomes. However, getting the winning fighter isn't all that matters. They've also got to land enough strikes, takedowns, or submission attempts to score points!
numberFire is always the best spot to prepare you for any UFC card. If you would rather bet on the fights, my betting guide is excellent for finding value on Saturday's card. I also dove deeper into this card on this week's Heat Check Daily Fantasy Podcast.
Let's break down UFC Vegas 69: Andrade vs. Blanchfield, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas on Saturday night.
MVP Considerations
Some weeks I struggle to narrow this section to three fighters. Three is all I could find, here.
Obviously, the starting point is Zac Pauga ($20). The pitch could be as simple as he's 74.4% implied to win, and every loss of Jordan Wright's career has ceded 100-plus FanDuel points to his opponent. The deeper dive is Pauga landing 5.71 significant strikes per minute with excellent 64% accuracy, and Wright's 32% striking defense is horrendous.
From there, I'm seeing ghosts -- or rather "The Ghost" A.J. Fletcher ($18). Fletcher was a hot prospect off of the Contender Series, but run-ins with Matt Semelsberger and Ange Loosa -- and their combined six UFC wins -- have still left him empty-handed in the "W" column.
The hints of elite offense are there. Fletcher lands 4.04 significant strikes per minute with 50% accuracy, and he's added 2.31 takedowns per 15 minutes on solid 41% accuracy. He's taking that offense to a weaker opponent in debutant Themba Gorimbo. At the very least, Gorimbo was unable to finish his last two foes with Fury FC, and Fletcher's never been finished. He'll be around.
Finally, I do think Mayra Bueno Silva ($22) is worth a look as the largest favorite (-520) on the card. The drawback on Bueno Silva is that the fight is -132 to go the entire distance, and the opposing Lina Lansberg has gone the full distance in seven straight bouts.
Still, Bueno Silva has finished four of her five UFC wins, and Lansberg's striking defense (44%) and takedown defense (48%) are both dreadful.
Other High-Salaried Fighters
Though he's in my betting guide to win, I'm not sure Philipe Lins ($17) jumps out as a daily fantasy option.
He succeeded in wrestling during his light heavyweight debut against Marcin Prachnio ($15), landing 4 of 11 takedown attempts. The issue is that Lins scored just 82.4 FanDuel points in the win with that style, and his fight with Ovince St. Preux is still a relatively short +106 to go all 15 minutes. It's possible, but the fledgling, soon-to-be-40-year-old OSP has been knocked out in his last two losses.
Prachnio is also on this card with William Knight ($16) as his opponent, too. That one is -240 to be finished early with near pick 'em odds, but I can't back Knight, the bodybuilder, despite his power advantage. His 32% striking defense is horrendous, and with a +1.69 striking success rate (SSR), Prachnio has been the much more efficient striker. Prachnio going all 15 minutes with Khalil Rountree Jr. helps ease my concerns about his chin.
Nazim Sadykhov ($16) fits the bill of a fighter I rarely back. He's a debutant with no wins over a UFC opponent. However, his opponent Evan Elder also fits that description as Elder was ragdolled by Preston Parsons at 170 pounds in his UFC debut.
Elder's debut at lightweight could change his fortune, but at the end of the day, Sadykhov's stint on the Contender Series (+1.83 SSR) was actually good, and Elder's debut (-3.20 SSR) was dreadful. As a data guy, the small salary discount isn't worth that convincing trend.
"Pretty Boy" Jamall Emmers ($15) also finds himself in a near pick 'em with debutant Khusein Askhabov, but Emmers has legitimate UFC success on his resume. He's faced fighters with a combined 18 UFC wins in his four appearances and still amassed a +1.29 SSR. With an overall pace of 4.68 FanDuel points per minute (excl. bonuses), he's not one to fade if the fight is rolling in his direction.
Value Fighters
With the lack of fight volume (11 bouts), FanDuel didn't really boost Erin Blanchfield's ($13) salary for the main event, and she'll be my highest-drafted fighter by a mile.
Headlining the show, Blanchfield is a +110 underdog to Jessica Andrade, but I don't really understand why. While Andrade just set the women's flyweight record for significant strikes landed (231), that was against Lauren Murphy's non-existent grappling threat -- or really any true threat at all.
The last time Andrade faced an elite flyweight wrestler, Valentina Shevchenko went 7-for-7 on takedown attempts and finished "Bate Estaca" in the third round. Blanchfield's takedown accuracy (68%) is even higher than Valentina Shevchenko's (64%) despite the obvious gap in competition. I think "Cold Blooded" Blanchfield piles up takedowns and stinks up the show.
Josh Parisian ($14) is also undervalued considering a 4-2 UFC record facing a total debutant. If you want to make qualms about Parisian's -0.14 SSR, I get it, but his opponent, Jamal Pogues, amassed a -0.17 SSR on the Contender Series against a guy we're not even sure is UFC caliber. Parisian will also have about 20 pounds on the former light heavyweight.
Our old friend Jim Miller ($11) is most dangerous as a 'dog, and he's one -- again -- on short notice to Alexander Hernandez, but I don't see this as a risky fight for Miller. Hernandez's 0.88% knockdown rate is lower than you'd think, and he was submitted in his last appearance at 155 pounds. We know Miller (18 of 29 pro wins by submission) can make that happen.
Juancamilo Ronderos ($10) is also a potential win dart against the debuting Clayton Carpenter. His +0.87 SSR against David Dvorak -- in a fight taken on 24 hours' notice -- provides some hope he can turn away the prospect, but we don't much about either fighter in that one.
