Betting Guide for UFC Vegas 63
Last week's card was dripping in controversy between a potential sugar-coated robbery and a chip on the shoulder gone wrong. Lightweight might have also closed up shop for the next half decade.
There's no time to rest, though. The UFC is back at the Apex this weekend, and we've got a featherweight banger in the main event.
UFC Vegas 63: Kattar vs. Allen will take place Saturday from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. Which MMA bets stand out on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Marcos Rogerio De Lima and Dustin Jacoby to Both Win
(+115; 1.5 Units)
We've hit the 20s. Manon Fiorot and Karol Risa ground out dubs last week in Fight Island to bump the two-legger to 20-9 overall.
This week's comes at plus money. I'm rocking with former light heavyweight Marcos Rogerio de Lima (-245) and current light heavyweight Dustin Jacoby (-174) on Saturday.
Rogerio de Lima is taking on Andrei Arlovski at heavyweight, and Arlovski, who would tie the all-time UFC wins record with a victory, fights just about the same fight every time. The striker hasn't won a fight by knockout or scored a knockdown since 2015, so he's left to ugly brawls where he -- and his +0.61 striking success rate -- are just the slightest bit ahead.
Rogerio de Lima has been submitted in three of his four losses at heavyweight, but Arlovski's never shown an ability to do so. On the feet, "Pezao" has outstruck heavyweight foes with a +99 striking differential overall. He's been too fast for this division and slowed only by grappling.
At light heavyweight, Jacoby should be in a great spot against Khalil Rountree Jr. so long as he doesn't suffer his first UFC loss via knockout. Jacoby (+1.50 striking success rate) is one of the best kickboxers in the division, and his skill should be too much for the inefficient Rountree, who holds poor marks in striking accuracy (38%) and striking defense (49%).
Rogerio de Lima likely has the harder fight, but his speed should still outpoint Arlovski over 15 minutes. We'll take these two to push our streak to six straight wins.
Tim Means to Win (+154; 0.75 Units)
I was surprised to see Tim Means (+162) as the underdog here, but that's kind of his thing.
Means has been the underdog in five of his last seven fights, but he's 4-3 in those fights. It makes sense since I really can't pinpoint many places he truly struggles.
He's got the total package striking, offering 5.01 significant strikes per minute with solid 48% accuracy. That's also paired with an excellent 61% striking defense, and his 66% takedown defense has been fine, as well.
His opponent, Max Griffin, has really picked up steam after landing a +13 striking differential on veteran Neil Magny in a fight many thought he'd be finished in. Griffin doesn't have poor marks, but he isn't quite as active, evidenced by his +0.42 striking success rate.
So long as Griffin doesn't turn to his wrestling (1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes), Means should still have the advantage striking in this one. That mat might even favor Means, as well, given he's posted two UFC submissions compared to zero for "Pain" Griffin.
With a shot to lead both domains, Means' chances to win seem far better than these 38.2% implied odds.
Dart Throw of the Week:
Tresean Gore by KO/TKO (+350; 0.25 Units)
I'd never throw down on a two-leg piece or straight bet due to a gut feeling or a "buy-low" spot, but that's what the dart is for.
Tresean Gore (+146) was a wildly talented participant on The Ultimate Fighter 29 who was expected to win the show if not for a knee injury. He was then a -175 favorite over show winner Bryan Battle and lost a tight decision.
Inexplicably, Gore was a -163 favorite over Cody Brundage in July, and Brundage -- a wrestler by trade -- landed his first career knockout in Gore's perceived better domain. It made no sense.
Well, Gore might have the reason why. He claims he had weight-cutting complications due to excessive marijuana use before his last fight. It didn't make a lot of sense as to how Brundage beat him at this own game, but that's a possible reason why.
Gore still has elite power as a middleweight prospect, and he's getting Josh Fremd in this battle of winless combatants. Fremd's debut against Anthony Hernandez -- a better opponent than either of Gore's -- was ugly, and he left it with just a 32% striking defense and 27% takedown defense.
A year ago, Gore would have likely carried a -200 moneyline over Fremd, who wasn't on the UFC's radar. Perhaps, with a clean slate, Gore can return to his headhunting ways in this one.
