UFC Daily Fantasy Helper: UFC Vegas 56
The Ultimate Fighting Championship holds no short of a dozen mixed martial arts bouts nearly every Saturday with no real offseason. As one of the most unique DFS sweats available, UFC daily fantasy is live on FanDuel.
The strategy behind this fantasy sport is intriguing. Given that two fighters face off against each other, and some fights end in seconds, choosing which side to back is crucial, and there is a wide range of outcomes. However, getting the winner fighter isn't all that matters. They've also got to land enough strikes, takedowns, or submission attempts to score points, too!
numberFire is always the best spot to get you ready for any UFC card. If you would rather bet on the fights, our betting guide is a great place to find value on Saturday's card. In addition to this primer, I also dove deeper into the slate on this week's UFC edition of The Heat Check Daily Fantasy Podcast.
Without further delay, let's break down UFC Vegas 56: Volkov vs. Rosenstruik, taking place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday.
Alexander Volkov ($19): This 14-fight card gives you plenty of options at MVP, but none stand out like the main event favorite. Volkov lost via submission in March during UFC London, but with Volkov's opponent Jairzinho Rosenstruik this week, a repeat outcome isn't a concern. Rosenstruik, a kickboxer, has never attempted a UFC takedown or submission attempt. In a striking match, "Drago" should dust him. He's got five rounds to work with a two-inch reach advantage, and Volkov holds a +1.79 striking success rate. "Bigi Boi" offers just a -0.27 rate and a card-worst 1.86 FanDuel points per minute (excluding bonuses).
Jeff Molina ($18): The higher salaries on this slate also carry a bit more risk for a low-volume decision. "Low volume" isn't a term that's in Molina's vocabulary. "El Jefe" averages a card-best 8.72 significant strikes landed per minute on razor-sharp 50% accuracy for his weight class. He's combined that with a 53% striking defense. Any concerns about his knockout power were answered with a second-round finish of Daniel Da Silva. While his takedown defense is a bit of a concern (37%), his opponent Zhalgas Zhumagulov hasn't been efficient in securing them (21%). If this fight spends much time at distance, Zhumagulov will be in danger of a second straight knockout loss.
Other High-Salaried Fighters
Erin Blanchfield ($22): Women's flyweight has several surging prospects at the moment, and Blanchfield entered that conversation with a seven-takedown smashing of Miranda Maverick last December. Maverick has rebounded since with a dominant win, so "Cold Blooded" might just be for real. She's a -590 moneyline favorite to dispatch JJ Aldrich. While Aldrich has shown decent takedown resistance (72% defense), Maverick did, as well. Plus, Blanchfield has a card-best +3.46 striking success rate from her work at distance against Sarah Alpar. Blanchfield is a solid night's work on Saturday from a top-10 spot in the rankings.
Movsar Evloev ($21): Evloev knows he needs to start pushing for finishes, but there's no doubting his skill. He's a dominant wrestler that's posted 4.00 takedowns per 15 minutes on solid 47% accuracy. His results striking (+1.63 striking success rate) are already well beyond what we see from other top-control wrestlers, and that's how he's a whopping -480 favorite to defeat veteran Dan "50K" Ige. This is a thoroughly sneaky spot at MVP considering Ige has never been professionally finished and Evloev has never won a UFC fight early, but Evloev projects to be in dominant positions during the fight that could end it before the final bell.
Others to Consider: Damon Jackson ($23), Alonzo Menifield ($18), Benoit Saint-Denis ($17), Felice Herrig ($16)
Johnny Munoz Jr. ($15): Munoz doesn't have a perfect profile, but he's got a matchup to exploit as a great athlete. Tony Gravely is on the other side of this bout, and while Gravely's wrestling skills are tremendous, he's got just a 47% striking defense. That produced a knockout loss as his only UFC setback, but Gravely has also lost five of his seven pro fights via submission. Munoz has shown talent as a defensive striker (67% striking defense) who can exploit weaknesses in grappling (2.70 submission attempts per 15 minutes). He's got round-one finishing upside in a tier that lacks it.
Andreas Michailidis ($10): With so many strong favorites on the card, finding a punt is about managing probabilities. UFC debutant Rinat Fakhretdinov is the -320 favorite here, but his only opponent on his resume with a UFC appearance is Eric Spicely. Spicely flamed out of UFC with a 2-5 record, and Fakhretdinov did not dominate him as much as he scored a first-minute knockout of the veteran. Both Fakhretdinov and Andreas Michailidis enter this bout with 18 pro wins, and 16 from both have come via an early finish. This is a dart throw that Michailidis' UFC experience -- including a win in three tries -- separates him from a rookie.
Others to Consider: Poliana Botelho ($15), Alex Da Silva ($13), Zarrukh Adashev ($11), Lucas Almeida ($11)