UFC Daily Fantasy: How Should Weight Class Impact Which Fighters You Roster on FanDuel?

Imagine if NFL daily fantasy didn't have positions.

On FanDuel, you roster a certain type of player in their respective position. The players most likely to score significant points on an NFL slate are quarterbacks, but some running backs and wide receivers also have access to big days through their ability to accumulate yards and scores worth more at their position because they are harder to come by. There are also whole defensive units with a wonky scoring breakdown.

But, what if, instead, FanDuel just asked you to roster nine football players? Yes, any nine players at their salary. You wouldn't even know where to begin. Should I stack as many quarterbacks as possible? Should I play any defenses?

That's basically what UFC daily fantasy asks a player to do. The fighters inside of a UFC octagon are all unique. A big, lumbering heavyweight looking to land one seminal blow has a very different approach to winning their fight than a technical, crisp women's strawweight. The fight-stopping power behind each punch and kick -- as you'd imagine -- is also very different between a 115-pound woman and a 265-pound man.

There are a bunch of beliefs on how weight class impacts UFC daily fantasy. "Stack heavyweight fights in tournaments because someone is going to sleep" or "fade all women's division fights because there aren't as many finishes" are two of my favorites.

However, unfounded claims don't do us very much good. So, I wanted to explore my 2021 UFC data to find key things we should know about weight classes after the sport's first full year on FanDuel. Here's what I found.

Note: Tables are sortable in any category.

The Sample

As is always worth remembering, this is a small sample of just a year. That makes it hard to pull anything concrete from it, but there are enough data points here to at least analyze trends.

Most trends will be represented by the number of fighters who represent the sample, but some will be just the outcome of the fights themselves. For perspective, here are the number of participants from each weight class in the sample (in alphabetical order):

Catchweight bouts and fights with other weight-related abnormalities were excluded, but this sample does include fighters who missed weight but were still listed as fighting in a match at the given weight class.

The Basics: Finishing Rate

Because finishing is the single-most impactful method of scoring FanDuel points, the first trend I wanted to analyze was just how often a fight in each weight class was finished by a certain method -- a knockout (or technical knockout), a submission, or a win by judges' decision.

On FanDuel, the finish type really doesn't matter. But, it does help illustrate the difference between weight classes that heavyweight saw 18 of its 20 finishes (95.0%) come via knockout. There aren't a lot of skilled grapplers in the division.

On the other side of the coin, flyweight -- the smallest men's division at 125 pounds -- saw 33.3% of its finishes come via submission (3 of 9). This part should all feel very normal to any UFC fan.

However, it starts getting weird when we look at the true trend that matters here -- overall finishing rate. The lowest division by percentage was -- to my amazement -- featherweight. Just 34.5% of the division's 57 fights last year ended in a finish.

In terms of "myth-busting" women's divisions as low-finish outcomes, this data does the opposite. Three of the bottom-five divisions in the sport by finishing rate are the three full-time UFC women's weight classes. Women's featherweight was the only exception, and to keep that division in perspective -- it had just five fights. We barely get the opportunity to roster that division, even though it does buck the trend.

Setting gender aside for a moment, of the eight smallest weight classes in UFC overall, five are in the bottom five of finishing rate. All three of UFC's heaviest weight classes are in the top-five of finishing rate.

The general takeaway: a higher weight class does increase the chance of an early finish.

The Basics: Counting Stats

Great -- so now we know that heavyweight, light heavyweight, and middleweight fights generally are a better target to find a finish on FanDuel. The problem? That's not the only way you can score points.

In fact, last year's highest single-fight scorer was Max Holloway in January 2021. He posted 287 FanDuel points, but amazingly, it came in a decision. A UFC-record 445 significant strikes landed contributed to that a great deal.

So, given that we can arguably score more points this way, how did fighters score knockdowns, significant strikes, takedowns, and submission attempts per minute based on their weight class?

Okay, consider me flabbergasted by this -- heavyweight is outside the top-five in knockdowns per minute but second in overall significant strikes landed per minute. That massive knockout rate? It's actually coming from volume more than one-punch power.

Lightweight is arguably UFC's best division. It's certainly stacked with talent when Beneil Dariush has won seven straight fights and hasn't even really sniffed a title bout. Therefore, it's no surprise to see that the division is incredibly impactful and aggressive per minute. Lightweights are scoring the most FanDuel points per minute and finding finishes at the highest rate in this sample. Sheesh.

It's really a valuable trend to see all four women's divisions -- including featherweight -- also in the bottom five in terms of overall FanDuel scoring per minute. If a fighter isn't scoring as well per minute and they aren't in a position to secure an early finish, they're probably a poor daily fantasy play.

Unless...

The Basics: Win Outcomes

The single hardest part of UFC daily fantasy is finding value plays.

Most high-end plays at the top of the player pool will pan out as heavy favorites, and they're popular for a reason. That's very similar to the dynamic in NBA daily fantasy. However, finding value plays -- especially encroaching the minimum-salary area -- is brutal. Most have a floor of basically zero points with an early finish.

However, weight class can be a giant help in determining which value plays might be safer than others.

In my opinion, this is a crucial takeaway. If you stopped reading this before this section, you'd likely look to never roster a women's division fighter again.

However, all four of the women's divisions saw the four highest win percentages for betting underdogs. Underdogs, because FanDuel salaries are roughly outlined by betting odds, are going to be your value plays.

On the other hand, just 17.6% of heavyweight underdogs ended up winning their fight.

The note on women's divisions is not impactful just to find value plays, it's also useful in determining high-salary plays to not roster. Women's favorites are not only more volatile, but they're also usually coming at a salary -- or popularity cost of heavy betting odds -- that's not really different from the other divisions.

As a final keynote with those odds, underdogs at women's bantamweight averaged the most FanDuel points per minute, but they also had higher salaries in many instances. The favorites in the division had a lower average salary than any other division.

Putting it All Together: Favorites

As you can see, the best general outcomes come from divisions that we'd associate anecdotally with action, talent, and enough finishing potential -- men's bantamweight, featherweight, and lightweight.

Lightweight dropped to third here because you also have to take into consideration what's on the other side of those explosive finishes and per-minute performances. It's a fighter getting decimated, and that fighter could also be in your lineup.

The largest average win bonus shouldn't be a shocker -- it's heavyweight (39.87). Heavyweight is fifth overall in terms of per-dollar salary rankings because its before-bonus mark lags well behind that of its top-five contemporaries. You can target heavyweight for a quick finish, but don't be shocked to get a dud.

With an average ranking of 8.3, the four women's divisions definitely lag behind at the top. Of course, there are explosive exceptions like Manon Fiorot or Jessica Andrade. In general, though, the weight classes are awarding a lower win bonus -- partially due to the propensity for underdogs to win -- and not doing nearly enough per minute to make up for it.

Putting it All Together: Underdogs

With three of the top-seven spots, the women's divisions are making some noise in the value tier. Their average rank in this tier is 6.5, and that's largely weighed down by the 12th-place anchor from the teeny featherweight sample.

Still, bantamweight, featherweight, and lightweight were three of the top four divisions in per-dollar scoring for underdogs, too.

After also seeing the underdog rank for welterweight and middleweight, we can really see an unfortunate trend. The two divisions, between both categories, have an average ranking of 9.5 and 10.0, respectively.

Think of both divisions, and it makes more sense. Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington, and the top challengers at welterweight are all very strong wrestlers. That leads to fewer knockouts standing and fewer significant strikes per minute.

At middleweight, it's just a low-volume striking match more often than not. Only one of the middleweight's current top-10 fighters averages north of 4.50 significant strikes per minute (Sean Strickland). For context, bantamweight has seven of their top-10 fighters over that mark.

Key Takeaways

Here are the most crucial pieces of information to take away from this piece to build lineups on FanDuel:

-- Bantamweight, featherweight, and lightweight were all top-four classes in FanDuel points per dollar of salary when targeting both favorites and underdogs
-- Lightweight had the highest finishing rate (60.7%) and scored the most FanDuel points per minute (5.36) last year.
-- Heavyweight doesn't have the power you think it does; it's actually sixth in knockdowns per minute, but surprisingly, it's second in significant strikes landed per minute.
-- Only 17.6% of heavyweight underdogs won their fight in 2021.
-- Regardless of gender, the bottom-five divisions in terms of finishing rate were all from the eight lightest weight classes.
-- All three of UFC's heaviest divisions were in the top five of finishing rate.
-- All four women's divisions finished in the bottom five of FanDuel scoring last year.
-- Women's divisions grade out with a better average per-dollar production ranking when targeting underdog/value fighters (6.5) than favorites (8.3).
-- All four women's divisions had a higher percentage of underdog winners than any single men's division.
-- Middleweight and welterweight had the lowest cumulative per-dollar production rankings when excluding women's featherweight, which had just a five-fight sample.
-- While these trends can point a daily fantasy player in the right direction, fighters vary wildly in these divisions, so always evaluate each on their own using striking data, bookmaker odds, and other key information to target fighters as individuals; don't target just their weight class.