Betting Guide for UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai

The main event is unlikely to go the distance, so how should we be betting it this weekend?

Two heavyweight fights headline this weekend's UFC card, UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai (a.k.a UFC Vegas 28, a.k.a. UFC Fight Night 189, a.k.a. UFC on ESPN+ 47).

Each of those two bouts is at least 60% likely to end early, via the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The rest of the card is showing some apparent betting value, as well, and that makes for a great all-around card from a betting standpoint.

These are some of the fights that my model likes most for the weekend.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-126) vs. Augusto Sakai (+108)

The betting lines here make this one look like close to a toss-up, as Jairzinho Rozenstruik's -126 odds imply he's 55.6% likely to win. My model is a tinge higher on him at 61.1%.

Rozenstruik (11-2-0), the sixth-ranked contender in the heavyweight division, has the rankings edge over Augusto Sakai (15-2-1), who is the ninth-ranked contender.

Rozenstruik has picked up both of his pro losses in his past three fights, first to reigning champion Francis Ngannou and then to Ciryl Gane (the current third-ranked contender) back in February.

Sakai's six-fight win streak most recently came to an end in September via a TKO loss to Alistair Overeem (who has since been released from the UFC).

Sakai's striking metrics (5.32 significant strikes landed per minute) do outperform Rozenstruik's (3.14), which is a little concerning, but one route we can go is simply for this fight to end early.

The odds for the main event to end early are -320 on FanDuel Sportsbook. The fight to end by KO/TKO is -240.

Of the 13 professional bouts in Rozenstruik's career, 11 have ended by knockout (10 wins), and for Sakai, 12 of his 18 have ended by knockout (11 wins). At Tapology, 76% of public picks anticipate the fight to end by knockout, implying -325 odds, which best both the early stoppage and KO/TKO prop.

Outright, Rozenstruik to win by any method at -126 is a solid way to end the night on our betting cards.

Roman Dolidze (-148) vs. Laureano Staropoli (+126)

Roman Dolidze (8-1-0) has logged the majority of his pro fights at light heavyweight and lost his middleweight debut in his last fight against Trevin Giles by unanimous decision back in March.

In that bout, all three judges scored it 29-28 for Giles. However, 8 of 17 media scores were 29-28 for Dolidze. Sure, that doesn't get us a win on the bet slip, but it was a close fight, and we shouldn't overreact if we have reasons to like him in this matchup.

Laureano Staropoli (9-3-0) has had stints at both welterweight and middleweight in his pro career and most recently missed weight at 170.

The point being: Dolidze has historically fought bigger and has a five-inch reach advantage. Staropoli also is coming off of two unanimous decision losses with just one fight since October of 2019.

My model gives Dolidze a nice 69.9% chance to secure the win, which outperforms his moneyline odd implications (59.7%).

There should be value on the fight to end by points (-150) for a bit of a safeguard against the upset.

Montana De La Rosa (-290) vs. Ariane Lipski (+225)

The odds for this fight seem a little off. My betting model anticipates a virtual coin flip for Ariane Lipski (13-6-0) against Montana De La Rosa (11-6-1) and actually has Lipski as a slight favorite, winning 50.4% of the time.

Neither fighter enters with particularly good form: De La Rosa is 2-2-1 over her past five UFC fights, and Lipski is 2-3-0 in that span, as well.

Lipski's striking advantage (3.03 significant strikes per minute) over De La Rosa's (2.85) is slighter than De La Rosa's takedown advantage (2.14 per 15 minutes) over Lipski's (0.27). Lipski has defended 45% of takedown attempts in the UFC, so that could pose a problem.

However, Lipski has faced a substantially tougher schedule, via MMAMatrix's 540 metric and is getting 59% of the expected wins at Tapology.

This fight to end by points is listed at -230 at FanDuel Sportsbook, but 78% of public picks at Tapology anticipate it to go the distance, suggesting the odds should be -355.

Similarly, Lipski to win by points is +380, but the picks suggest those odds should be closer to +120. That's a big leverage opportunity.