Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 33
The Premier League campaign is winding down, and we're firmly at the business end of the season.
Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Fulham at Aston Villa
Aston Villa Moneyline (-135)
We had a perfect weekend last weekend. Let's do it again for this week's midweek matches.
Villa are one of the in-form sides in the league. They've gone unbeaten over their past nine EPL matches, winning seven times in that span. They've been lights out at home over that time, winning all four of their home matches and keeping a clean sheet in each one -- outscoring opponents by a combined tally of 9-0, including an impressive 3-0 win over Newcastle United in their most recent home bout.
Unai Emery has Villa rolling, and they should be able to keep it going versus Fulham.
Fulham have done very well this season, but their pace has slowed in recent weeks, especially on the road. They've suffered a defeat in five of their last seven matches in all competitions, and they've shipped nine goals across their four road fixtures in that spell. Per FBRef's expected goal (xG) model, Fulham have won the xG battle only once in their past seven road league games, and that one came against an Everton side that is currently in the bottom three.
Pushing for a spot in Europe next campaign, Villa have plenty to play for on Tuesday and have a good chance to continue their red-hot form. I like them at this -135 moneyline price.
Arsenal at Manchester City
Manchester City First-Half Moneyline (-105)
Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals (+176)
This is the big one.
After sitting atop the table pretty much all year, Arsenal's season has taken a turn for the worse, and just like that, Manchester City are overwhelming -440 favorites to win the league. City can all but clinch another EPL crown if they beat the Gunners at the Etihad on Wednesday. I think City will do just that, but I don't love their -180 moneyline price. Instead, I'm going to target these bets.
City's attack had been a little out of sorts for most of the year, but they've found their groove.
Over their last eight matches (in all competitions), City have scored a total of 31 goals and have recorded at least three goals in all but one match in that span. The one exception was a second-leg Champions League road clash with Bayern Munich in which City went into the game with a 3-0 aggregate lead and didn't need to be all that aggressive going forward. City have netted 23 goals over their past five home matches, and that includes 7 against RB Leipzig, 4 versus Liverpool and 3 against Bayern -- so it's not like they're beating up on minnows.
Arsenal, meanwhile, haven't kept a clean sheet in the five matches since center-back William Saliba got hurt. In their past three matches, they've been tagged for 3.9 xG at Anfield and then allowed five total goals to West Ham and Southampton. You don't want to be out of sorts at the back heading into a road match against City, but that's exactly the situation for Arsenal.
I expect City -- who put three past Arsenal at the Emirates earlier this season -- to be too much for Arsenal's struggling back-line, and I think they have a better shot to score three-plus goals than this +176 price indicates. I also expect City to come out of the blocks at 100 MPH, so I'm taking them to win the first half (-105).
Carlos Alcaraz to Score or Assist (+140): Alcaraz put forth quite the display at Arsenal last time out, scoring and assisting (and being carded) in the first half. The Saints are in desperation mode and have a sublime opportunity to get three points in Thursday's home matchup with Bournemouth. It's a nice spot for Alcaraz to get a goal or assist as the Cherries have conceded 40 goals in 16 away matches.
Kaoru Mitoma to Score or Assist (-125): Mitoma has been outstanding in his first campaign with Brighton, totaling seven goals and four assists in just 17 EPL starts. He's scored or assisted in 11 of his previous 17 league matches, and he's played at least 89 minutes in 10 of his last 12 contests. Brighton are -185 moneyline favorites at Forest on Wednesday. Forest have allowed multiple goals in eight of their last nine matches.