Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 31
The Premier League campaign is winding down, and we're firmly at the business end of the season.
Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Arsenal at West Ham
West Ham And Draw (+140)
Going by expected goals, West Ham have been one of the more unlucky sides in the Premier League this season, and I think they can get something from their Sunday clash against the league-leading Gunners.
West Ham are 14th in the table and are just three points clear of the bottom three, but by expected goal differential, they're 10th in the EPL with a mark of +1.3, per FBRef's expected goals model. Only recently have they been getting results that are more in line with what they deserve; David Moyes' side has lost just once in their past four EPL matches.
It'll take a special effort for the Hammers to win or draw this match, but I think they have it in them. In their past seven EPL matches versus bix-six sides, the Hammers have put up a fight, losing the expected goals battle by a combined tally of just 9.1-7.9. Motivation won't be an issue, either. West Ham are still in danger of getting sucked down into the bottom three.
While Arsenal have been getting results on the road, taking 35 of a possible 45 points from their 15 away fixtures, they've been rather fortunate away from the Emirates. Their expected goal differential on the road is a good-not-great +7.5, and it'll be interesting to see how they bounce back after last weekend's draining 2-2 draw at Liverpool -- a match in which Arsenal were battered 3.9-1.4 by expected goals.
I think West Ham make this an uncomfortable match for Arsenal, and I like this +140 price on West Ham to either win or draw.
Manchester United at Nottingham Forest
Forest And Draw (+120)
Things are slipping away from Nottingham Forest as they haven't won since February 5th and are now priced at -240 to be relegated. With half of Forest's final eight matches coming against big-six sides -- plus a game against Brighton -- they're fighting a steep uphill battle to avoid the drop. They're going to need to pull an upset or two, and I think they can get something against Manchester United on Sunday.
Despite their poor recent results, Forest have been decent at home, and that could be their saving grace in this one. Across their past 11 home EPL matches, they've been beaten just once, notching an impressive win against Liverpool in that span while also drawing with Manchester City. City Ground has been a tough place to play, even for the big boys.
United, meanwhile, have been a bad away side this season, and they're going to be at a rest disadvantage after playing in the Europa League on Thursday. The Red Devils have lost or drawn in 8 of their 14 away fixtures and sit 14th in away goal differential (-12). They've won just once over their previous five road EPL matches, and even in that victory, United were bested by Leeds 1.8-1.1 in expected goals.
On top of that, United will be without star man Marcus Rashford due to injury. Rashford has 15 goals in league play and leaves a massive void as no other United player has more than five.
I like Forest's chances of getting at least a point.
Julian Alvarez Anytime Goalscorer (-115): City are -650 favorites over Leicester, and with this match sandwiched between City's Champions League quarterfinal with Bayern Munich, Erling Haaland could be rested. That would open the door for Alvarez to start at striker. He's looked good when given chances this season, netting seven goals in EPL play despite starting only seven matches. His rate of 0.73 goals per 90 minutes is second on the team. Just make sure he's in the lineup before placing this bet. Lineups will be out at 11:30 a.m. EST on Saturday.
Alexander Isak to Score or Assist (-115): Isak has taken over the number-nine role for Newcastle, and the Magpies are flying, netting at least two goals in five straight matches. Isak has eight goals in nine league starts and has totaled five goals over his last five appearances, one of which came from the spot. His role on penalties is a big boost for this prop, and I think he can stay hot despite a fairly tough road matchup at Villa.