FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Under-the-Radar Plays for 3/18/23
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be popular and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will be much less popular can separate you from your opponents.
The same goes for EPL DFS. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 11:00 a.m. EST and features five matches. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Leeds (+240) at Wolves (+125)
Over 2.5 Goals: +126 | Most Likely to Score: Bamford (+200)
Leicester (+290) at Brentford (-110)
Over 2.5 Goals: -118 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+110)
Bournemouth (+410) at Aston Villa (-145)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Watkins (+140)
Tottenham (-130) at Southampton (+370)
Over 2.5 Goals: +100 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (+110)
Everton (+600) at Chelsea (-210)
Over 2.5 Goals: +106 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang (+145)
Matchweek 28 features two big-six sides, with Tottenham and Chelsea in action on a five-game main slate.
Chelsea (-210 to win) are the largest favorite on the slate, and Harry Kane ($23) and Ivan Toney ($22) have the best odds to score (+110) of any players who could be active on Saturday.
Aston Villa (-145 to win) are the second-largest favorite, followed by Tottenham (-130) and Brentford (-110 to win). Wolves (+125 to win) round out the slate as slight home favorites.
Chelsea enter this weekend on a three-match winning streak, their longest streak since October, highlighted by a two-goal victory over Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League on March 7th. Tottenham have just one win in their last four fixtures during which they were eliminated from both the FA Cup and Champions League. Their well-documented struggles over the last three months makes it tougher to trust Chelsea, but their current form, combined with the lack of other big-six sides on the slate should make Chelsea's stars very popular on Saturday.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar.
Kelechi Iheanacho, FWD/MID, Leicester
FanDuel Salary: $16
Iheanacho is goalless in his last four appearances, but those games included a tough stretch of opponents. Over their last four, Leicester has faced Chelsea, Southampton, Arsenal, and Manchester United. Before that, they scored four goals in back-to-back games against Tottenham and Aston Villa, with Iheanacho finding the back of the net in both contests.
Brentford have been in solid form recently, taking 11 points from their last six matches, fifth-best in the Premier League over that period. However, they have stumbled at times, losing to Everton and drawing with Crystal Palace. Leicester are deservedly underdogs on paper in this one, but there could be goals on both sides. The line for over 2.5 goals, -118, is the best odds for any game on Saturday.
Iheanacho's odds to score of +220 are tied for fourth-best in this contest and only slightly worse than Chelsea's Joao Felix ($18) (+200). His odds are even with Chelsea's Noni Madueke ($17) and Mykhailo Mudryk ($16). Brentford are the on-paper favorite here, but Iheanacho could still find success and has a reasonable salary.
Ruben Neves, FWD/MID, Wolves
FanDuel Salary: $16
Wolves' clash with Leeds is the least likely to see over 2.5 goals according to the odds. The two sides come into this one with one win each over their last five fixtures, and both sides find themselves firmly in the relegation battle. Despite sitting 13th on the table, Wolves are only three points clear of the drop.
While the scoring outlook is a little grim, both sides are allowing over a goal per match this season, and Leeds has conceded an average of 1.8 goals per away match. Neves has been consistently productive for Wolves, reaching double-digit FanDuel points in 8 of his last 11 fixtures.
His odds to score of +500 are a bit long, but they aren't that much different than Southampton's James Ward-Prowse ($18; +420). On a five-game slate slightly lacking in talent at the top of the player pool, Neves' lack of an elite ceiling doesn't hurt his outlook as much. He should go overlooked despite his consistency.
Emiliano Buendia, FWD/MID, Aston Villa
FanDuel Salary: $14
Saturday's clash between Aston Villa and Bournemouth is an interesting one. After back-to-back-back losses to Leicester, Manchester City, and Arsenal, Villa are undefeated in their last three, with two wins and a draw. Bournemouth are coming off an impressive one-goal win over Liverpool after dropping back-to-back games against Arsenal and Manchester City. Both sides will be happy to see a non-big-six opponent on the other side of the pitch this weekend.
Buendia has had more downs than ups this season, with just four goals and no assists in 26 appearances. He should have a decent chance to add to his total on Saturday facing a Bournemouth side allowing 18.2 shots per game on the road this season, the worst in the Premier League.
Buendia's odds to score +260 are significantly better than Chelsea midfielders Enzo Fernandez ($15; +650) and Mateo Kovacic ($9; +800). Operating at the center of second largest favorite on the slate, Buendia's outlook for this weekend is positive and his lack of recent success may cause him to go overlooked.