FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 3/11/23
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Brighton (-105) at Leeds (+280)
Over 2.5 Goals: -118 | Most Likely to Score: Ferguson (+175)
Brentford (+175) at Everton (+175)
Over 2.5 Goals: +130 | Most Likely to Score: Toney (+170)
Chelsea (-105) at Leicester (+280)
Over 2.5 Goals: -102 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang (+175)
Nottingham Forest (+650) at Tottenham (-240)
Over 2.5 Goals: -126 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (-125)
Manchester City (-280) at Crystal Palace (+800)
Over 2.5 Goals: -126 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-145)
As is the case pretty much whenever Manchester City are on a slate, we need to start with them. City are -213 to score at least two goals, which is a slate-best clip, and while a road match at Palace isn't a cakewalk, City have the firepower to cruise.
Erling Haaland ($24; -145) has slate-best goal odds. He's still not all that involved at times for City, but he's got a goal and assist over his past two league matches. However, I'll mostly fade his slate-high salary -- there's another high-end striker I prefer -- and get my City exposure via Phil Foden ($18; +220), Riyad Mahrez ($17; +175) and Ilkay Gundogan ($15; +310). Gundogan's goal odds are lacking, but he's a more appealing +150 to score or assist.
I'm trying to save some coin with City so I can get to Harry Kane ($22; -125). Tottenham are at home versus Forest, and they're -200 to go over 1.5 goals. Kane isn't going to fly under the radar by any means, but it's not easy to roster both he and Haaland. Of the two, I side with Kane. Forest have shipped 29 goals in 12 away matches, so this is a great spot for Spurs to rebound after their midweek UCL disappointment.
Most everyone is going to try to get a piece of Tottenham and City. Being right elsewhere can separate your lineup. Brighton and Chelsea are both slim road favorites. Brighton, who are at Leeds, have the easier matchup, and I want exposure to them.
We've seen this Seagulls side overwhelm some mid-to-bottom-table opposition this year, including amassing a whopping 3.5 expected goals (xG) against West Ham last weekend, according to FBRef's xG model. Evan Ferguson ($18; +175) and Kaoru Mitoma ($17; +195) are at the top of my Brighton wishlist.
If you want to get access to an on-the-rise Chelsea side, Joao Felix ($19; +240) is +125 to score/assist. Chelsea could really do us a favor and give us some value pieces if they opt to rotate the squad. Guys like Mykhailo Mudryk ($13; +270), Hakim Ziyech ($12; +340) and Christian Pulisic ($11; +330) would be enticing cap-relief plays if they get into the lineup. Ziyech is a team-best +110 to score/assist thanks to his set-piece work.
Added time -- The Brentford-Everton game is an ugly +130 to go over 2.5 goals. Don't sleep on Ivan Toney ($20; +170), though. The goal odds are solid, and he could be a perfect GPP play. ... Richarlison ($18; +160) may get a starting nod for Spurs, and he'd be an interesting pivot off Kane. ... Leicester's Tete ($13; +480) is worth a glance as a potential value play despite the difficult matchup with Chelsea.
Tottenham's Pedro Porro ($10) is my favorite defender play. The full-back is +270 to score/assist, which is a quality clip for the position, and he should spend a lot of time in attacking areas in a date with Forest. A Porro-Kane stack has big-time upside.
Fresh off injuries, Chelsea's duo of Reece James ($13) and Ben Chilwell ($10) haven't yet climbed back to the salaries they had prior to going on the shelf. James is an all-around force who is a position-best +210 to score/assist. Chilwell recorded an assist last week and is +270 to score/assist at Leicester.
Crystal Palace's Marc Guehl ($10) and Nottingham Forest's Joe Worrall ($10) are modest-salaried center-backs who will be busy as a big underdog. That gives them a sturdy floor, although neither offers the attacking juice Porro and Chilwell can for the same salary.
Added time -- If you have some coin to spend at defender, Joachim Andersen ($14) could push for 20-plus FanDuel points via defensive actions in a clash with City. He tallied 16.7 FanDuel points in a similar type of environment versus Liverpool two matches ago. ... Pervis Estupain ($10) has created seven chances across his previous three matches and should have opportunities to push forward at Leeds. ... Luke Ayling ($8) and Kyle Walker ($7) are viable low-salary punts.
Ederson ($13) and Fraser Forster ($12) carry the best win and clean-sheet odds. Ederson is -125 to blank Palace while Forster is +100 to keep a clean sheet versus Forest.
Between the two, I side with Ederson. The Brazilian is obviously the superior talent to Forster, who is normally Tottenham's backup keeper. Forster, though, offers more save upside, although neither figures to be all that busy.
I have a lot of interest in Kepa Arrizabalaga ($11) at Leicester and David Raya ($11) at Everton.
While Raya is a blah +205 to keep a clean sheet, it's not like Everton's attack is all that scary, and he plays behind a solid Bees defense.
Kepa has four clean sheets over his past seven EPL matches, and Chelsea are +162 to record another one at Leicester. The Foxes' attack has mostly been underwhelming this campaign while a talented Chelsea side is starting to round into form.
Added time -- You can make a decent case for Keylor Navas ($7). Tottenham are out of sorts right now, and Navas has the talent to keep them out of the goal. Plus, he'll surely be pretty busy, so even if he concedes, he can still post a quality fantasy output. ... Brighton will again turn to Jason Steele ($12) in goal. He had a two-save clean-sheet victory last time out. A similar outing is possible at Leeds, and Steele is going to go overlooked.