FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 3/4/23
As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.
Leeds (+460) at Chelsea (-160)
Over 2.5 Goals: -116 | Most Likely to Score: Aubameyang (+145)
Bournemouth (+1300) at Arsenal (-490)
Over 2.5 Goals: -178 | Most Likely to Score: Nketiah (+110)
Tottenham (+120) at Wolves (+240)
Over 2.5 Goals: +106 | Most Likely to Score: Kane (+135)
Crystal Palace (+290) at Aston Villa (+105)
Over 2.5 Goals: +124 | Most Likely to Score: Watkins (+195)
West Ham (+350) at Brighton (-130)
Over 2.5 Goals: -106 | Most Likely to Score: Ferguson (+170)
Leicester (+160) at Southampton (+170)
Over 2.5 Goals: +102 | Most Likely to Score: Vardy (+160)
We have to start with Arsenal.
The Gunners are massive -490 moneyline favorites at home against Bournemouth. They're -333 to score at least twice and +100 to go over 2.5 goals. In recent years, we've seen those kinds of numbers for only Liverpool and Manchester City. It's a testament to how good Arsenal have been this year, and it also says a lot about the Cherries, a side that has conceded 48 goals in 24 matches, including 32 in 12 away fixtures.
We've been zeroed in on the Gunners' front four all year, and there's no reason to change now. Bukayo Saka ($22; +150), Gabriel Martinelli ($20; +150) and Martin Odegaard ($21; +185) have been nailed-on starters while it appears that Leandro Trossard ($20; +175) has seized the number-nine gig, especially with Eddie Nketiah ($19; +110) dealing with a knock. Trossard is a slate-best -175 to score or assist while Odegaard (-165) isn't far behind.
Elsewhere, Chelsea are in their own tier as the next-best team to target. By expected goals (xG), the Blues haven't been as bad as their recent results suggest. They've scored just three times from 11.7 xG over their last eight matches, per FBRef's xG model. They're bound to pick it up eventually, and maybe it'll happen for them Saturday in a home clash with Leeds. Chelsea are -160 to win and -143 to go over 1.5 goals.
Chelsea's poor bottom-line results have pushed down their salaries across the board outside of Joao Felix ($19; +200). Felix is a top option on this slate and may get passed over by the masses in favor of Arsenal's high-salary studs. Kai Havertz ($17; +190), Hakim Ziyech ($12; +290) and Mykhailo Mudryk ($13; +230) are all probably a little lower in salary than they should be. Ziyech has team-best -125 goal/assist odds thanks to his set-piece duties. If he or Mudryk start, they're excellent cap-relief options.
After those two sides, things are pretty wide open. There's no other team I feel like I have to get a piece of. Brighton (-130 to win) are the only other sizable favorite, and while you could make a case for Evan Ferguson ($18; +170) or Kaoru Mitoma ($17; +200), it's a tough matchup as West Ham have surrendered the fourth-fewest xG this season. I'll tread lightly with the Seagulls.
Instead, I'll be searching for one piece to fit alongside my Blues and Gunners -- who will account for three of my four attacking slots -- with an emphasis on saving coin, which will be a necessity unless Ziyech or Mudyrk start for Chelsea. That leads me to Aston Villa's Emiliano Buendia ($13; +330), Southampton's Paul Onuachu ($13; +200) and Wolves' Pablo Sarabia ($13; +390).
Buendia -- who is my priority of those three -- and Sarabia don't have nice goal odds but are +115 and +195, respectively, to score/assist. Onuachu is at home versus a Leicester City side that's been meh defensively all year, allowing the fourth-most xG. It's a massive match for the Saints in their quest to get out of the bottom three.
Added time -- If Matheus Cunha ($12; +260) is able to start for Wolves, I'd prefer him to Sarabia. ... Tottenham's Harry Kane ($21; +135) and Son Heung-min ($18; +240) are fun leverage plays as they should slip through the cracks and can have good outings at Wolves if they're clicking. ... Jamie Vardy ($13; +160) has team-best goal odds for Leicester and is worth a look if he's in the lineup. .. David Fofana ($13; +195) will be a sweet value piece if he starts at striker for Chelsea.
Despite the large slate, attacking full-back is pretty blah. Chelsea's full-backs are the glaring exception, and with how mundane the Blues' attackers have been (outside of Felix), Reece James ($13) and Ben Chilwell ($9) are superb ways to get exposure to Chelsea.
For my money, James is the best right-back in the EPL, and he should have chances to get forward in a friendly matchup against Leeds. He's +175 to score/assist and will be a priority for me. Chilwell is +260 to score/assist and comes at a value salary.
Arsenal's Oleksandr Zinchenko ($10) checks a few boxes, too. He's scored 18.2, 11.9 and 28.9 FanDuel points over his past three league matches, notching a goal and an assist in that span. He will spend a lot of time in attacking areas against Bournemouth and is +220 to score/assist.
If I don't go with those guys, I'll take the high floors of the Bournemouth and Leeds defenders. Robin Koch ($10) and Maximilian Wober ($11) are expected to start for Leeds while Marcos Senesi ($11), Chris Mepham ($11) and Jack Stephens ($10) are listed as the likely center-backs for the Cherries.
Added time -- Angelo Ogbonna ($8) is a low-salary center-back who may be forced into action for West Ham due to injuries. He offers a serviceable floor at Brighton. ... If he starts, Ivan Perisic ($10) comes at a modest salary for Spurs and usually packs a punch going forward. ... Lucas Digne ($10) is +250 to score/assist for Villa in an advantageous spot versus Palace.
Aaron Ramsdale ($14) has the best win odds (-490) as well as the best clean-sheet chances (-143) -- by a mile. He's racked up two straight clean sheets. However, he's up there in salary and probably won't have much save volume to fall back on if he does concede. You can say a lot of the same about Kepa Arrizabalaga ($13), and I'll mostly fade this slate's goalie top tier.
Give me Emiliano Martinez ($11).
The Argentine keeper is +137 to keep a clean sheet at home against Palace, which are the third-best clean-sheet odds on the slate, and he's +105 to win. Unlike Ramsdale and Kepa, Martinez is a safe bet for solid save volume as he's made 17 saves across his past five matches, including 9 combined saves against Everton and Southampton. Even though Palace aren't that potent, they should be able to put a few shots on goal -- which helps Martinez's floor as well as gives him big-time upside if he can record a multi-save clean-sheet win.
I also like Jose Sa ($10). Wolves are home to Spurs. While Tottenham have been getting results and have the rest advantage after Wolves played midweek, Spurs have been held to 0.9 xG or fewer in half of their past six EPL matches.
Added time -- Robert Sanchez ($12) makes some sense and looks like a fun GPP pivot off the likely chalky Martinez. West Ham's attack has been stuck in the mud for most of this campaign, and Brighton have shipped the fifth-fewest home goals (11 in 11 matches). ... If you wanted to take Gavin Bazunu ($10) over the same-salaried Sa, I wouldn't push back too much. The Saints' shoddy defense gives him save equity each time out, and Leicester are a decent matchup.