FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for Wednesday 3/1/23

As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 2:45 p.m. EST on Wednesday. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.

Slate Overview

Everton (+850) at Arsenal (-290)
Over 2.5 Goals: -128 | Most Likely to Score: Nketiah (+140)

Wolves (+550) at Liverpool (-210)
Over 2.5 Goals: -142 | Most Likely to Score: Salah (+120)

Positional Breakdown

This two-match slate has a pair of obvious go-to sides -- Arsenal and Liverpool. Both are sizable home favorites over teams near the bottom of the table.

When building lineups, Arsenal will be the first stop for many, and the betting numbers give Arsenal the edge over Liverpool. The Gunners are -290 to win against Everton and -213 to go over 1.5 goals -- both of which are slate-best marks.

Bukayo Saka ($21; +180), Martin Odegaard ($20; +230) and Gabriel Martinelli ($19; +180) are expected to start, with Odegaard in midfield and the other two on the wings, and it'll likely be either Eddie Nketiah ($17; +140) or Leandro Trossard ($18; +175) at striker. Any of these guys are outstanding plays. Saka is on pens and has totaled at least 20.9 FanDuel points in five of his past six matches. Trossard and Nketiah are easy to like at their salaries, depending on who starts.

I think we need to also look at Granit Xhaka ($11; +470). The Arsenal midfielder is a valuable salary-saving option. He is a longshot to get a goal, but he's a more appealing +195 to score or assist. He'll probably be able to push forward more than normal in a match in which the Gunners should dominate possession.

Given how this season has gone for Arsenal and Liverpool, it stands to reason that if people want to go super heavy on one attack on this slate, it'll be Arsenal. But Liverpool's betting numbers aren't that much worse than Arsenal's. The Reds are -210 to win and -200 to score at least twice. It's not like Liverpool's stars are going to fly under the radar -- it's a two-match slate, after all -- but using more Reds than Gunners is a fun leverage play and makes some sense based on the betting marks.

Mohamed Salah ($20; +120) will be the chalk Liverpool player. He's got the slate's top goal odds and will be on penalties. He checks all the boxes. But I like the idea of fading him and rostering Cody Gakpo ($18; +175) and Diogo Jota ($17; +145) instead. Jota figures to be the fill-in for Darwin Nunez ($19; +130), who is an injury question mark. If Nunez plays, he's a top-shelf choice, but if he sits, Jota is someone I'll be heavy on. He's proven in the past to be an elite producer in terms of goals per 90 minutes and looked lively last weekend against Crystal Palace.

Hitting on a goal from either Everton or Wolves can be a key separator on this slate. Between the two underdogs, Wolves are the side I'm more interested in. Liverpool's defense is weaker than the Gunners' D. The Reds have shipped the 10th-most expected goals (xG), per FBRef, and Wolves have scored five times across three matches versus Liverpool this season (in all competitions).

Matheus Cunha ($13; +340) will have team-best goal odds if he's able to play. At a friendly salary, he's a very handy piece. Raul Jimenez ($15; +410) and Pablo Sarabia ($14; +500) are worth a look, too.

Added time -- Everton's best chance to score may be on a set-piece, and those are usually taken by either Demarai Gray ($13; +800) or Dwight McNeil ($12; +1000). ... The Toffees' Idrissa Gueye ($11; +1400) could work out as a value dart throw as he should be busy in the middle of the park. ... Liverpool's Stefan Bajcetic ($11; +850) is on the value radar, especially if he starts in a more advanced midfield role (as opposed to the pivot).


There's plenty of high-salary attacking talent despite it being a two-match slate, so I'll mostly avoid the top end of the defender pool in favor of the midrange.

Everton's Conor Coady ($10) and Seamus Coleman ($9) stand out in my eyes as modest-salaried defenders who offer a solid floor. They should be very busy at the Emirates. Coady had 10.2 FanDuel points against Arsenal on February 4th. I'd take that at this salary on a small slate.

Wolves' Craig Dawson ($11) and Maximilian Kilman ($10) are similar types of plays to Coady. Dawson scored 14.3 FanDuel points from defensive actions in the first league meeting with the Reds. Kilman had five blocks and six clearances in said game.

If you have the salary, Andrew Robertson ($13) and Trent Alexander-Arnold ($13) boast the best attacking upside at the position. They are +175 and +125, respectively, to score/assist. Trent has just two assists this year but has been unlucky not to have more as he's recorded 5.5 expected assists. He's going to have one of his patented spike games eventually.

Added time -- Everton's James Tarkowski ($14) put up 15.4 FanDuel points via defensive actions in the first matchup with Arsenal. He could push for 20-plus points on solely defensive work and will be a threat on set pieces. ... Oleksandr Zinchenko ($11) is +270 to score/assist and sometimes has the license to roam free when the Gunners have a team pinned back, which should be the case for a lot of the match versus the Toffees.


You need to budget for Aaron Ramsdale ($13) or Alisson ($12) if you're chasing the clean-sheet and/or win bonuses.

Ramsdale is -290 to win and -120 to keep a clean sheet -- both of which are slate-leading marks. Everton have netted only six goals in 11 away matches this campaign, although they have generated at least 1.3 xG in six of their last nine matches, showing more life under Sean Dyche.

Alisson is -210 to win and +130 to keep a clean sheet. The Brazilian has been in excellent form in league play. He's kept three straight clean sheets, allowing no goals despite opponents amassing 2.9 xG in that span. He projects to have more save volume than Ramsdale does, so if they both concede, Alisson is better suited to avoid a dud.

Of the two underdog goalies, I prefer Jordan Pickford ($7), although both have scary-low floors. I think Pickford is going to be under siege, which could result in a bunch of saves. If he can keep Arsenal to just a goal or two, he could post a serviceable score, and his $7 salary gives you a lot of flexibility.

With how Liverpool's season has gone, it wouldn't be shocking to see Wolves make things interesting in this one. Jose Sa ($8) is similar to Pickford in that he'll be busy but can come through as a value dart if he minimizes the damage.