FanDuel Soccer: EPL DFS Helper for 2/25/23

As always, we're covering FanDuel's main slate, which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST on Saturday. All betting lines come from the soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and FoxBet, and they may change after the article is published.

Slate Overview

Aston Villa (+190) at Everton (+155)
Over 2.5 Goals: +134 | Most Likely to Score: Calvert-Lewin (+195)

Arsenal (-145) at Leicester (+380)
Over 2.5 Goals: -150 | Most Likely to Score: Nketiah (+160)

Nottingham Forest (+400) at West Ham (-130)
Over 2.5 Goals: +116 | Most Likely to Score: Ings (+170)

Southampton (+280) at Leeds (-105)
Over 2.5 Goals: +100 | Most Likely to Score: Bamford (+135)

Manchester City (-340) at Bournemouth (+900)
Over 2.5 Goals: -186 | Most Likely to Score: Haaland (-170)

Positional Breakdown

Manchester City disappointed as the chalk side on last Saturday's main slate. They're going to be chalk again as they're -340 to win at Bournemouth with -303 odds to score at least two goals -- both of which are slate-leading marks by a country mile.

Erling Haaland ($24; -170 anytime goal odds) is well clear of the field in terms of goal and goal or assist (-300) odds. He's salaried like it, too, with a tag that is $3 more than anyone else's. Since coming to City, Haaland has been very goal-reliant in DFS. That was the case early on, and it didn't matter because he seemed to be scoring every week. But his goal pace has slowed in recent weeks, and it's made him a much worse DFS play. In his past two games -- at Forest and at RB Leipzig -- Haaland didn't score a single fantasy point.

With all that said, Haaland's anytime goal odds make him the slate's premier play, and he could tear apart a shoddy Cherries defense. How I'm approaching him comes down to expected popularity. If his recent swoon is going to drag down his draft percentage, I want in. If Haaland is still gonna be mega chalk -- which is what I'm betting on -- I'll be light on him.

As is always the case with City, anyone in an attacking spot is an enticing option. The three I'm most interested in are Kevin De Bruyne ($20; +200), Julian Alvarez ($17; +115) and Phil Foden ($18; +190). Foden and Alvarez may get back into the lineup with City coming off a midweek away match in Germany. KDB is -185 to score/assist.

Arsenal are the other standout side on this slate. Their matchup at Leicester should be a fantasy-friendly one. It's -150 to go over 2.5 goals, and the Gunners are -162 to score at least twice. There have been 14 total goals scored across Leicester's past three EPL matches.

Arsenal's front four -- so to speak -- are all excellent options. Eddie Nketiah ($18; +160) owns the top goal odds on the Gunners while Bukayo Saka ($21; +220), Martin Odegaard ($20; +250) and Gabriel Martinelli ($19; +200) are capable of having a big day.

The masses are going to load up on City and Arsenal, so hitting on a big game from an attacker on another team can propel you up the standings. I like West Ham as a place to look for said big game.

The Hammers are at home versus Forest and are -130 to win. Despite sitting 18th in the league table, West Ham are 9th in expected goal difference, per FBRef. Jarrod Bowen ($17; +230) is +100 to score/assist while using one of Said Benrahma ($13; +290) or Michail Antonio ($14; +175) fits nicely alongside City's and Arsenal's high-salary studs. Although Benrahma's +290 anytime goal odds aren't fun, he's +100 to score/assist and might be on penalties.

Among everyone else, Patrick Bamford ($16; +135) has appealing goal odds, and Leeds teammate Wilfried Gnonto ($16; +260) has been a key attacking piece. They have an easy-to-like home matchup with Southampton.

On the flip side of that one, Paul Onuachu ($13; +150) is one of the best value cogs on the slate. The goal odds are there, and Leeds have permitted the fourth-most goals in the EPL.

Added time -- The Villa-Everton match is a blah +134 to go over 2.5 goals. Don't sleep on Villa's Philippe Coutinho ($12; +350), though. He's been better of late and offers salary relief. ... Southampton's James Ward-Prowse ($17; +380) has ugly goal odds but is a set-piece wizard who is +175 to score/assist. ... If Leandro Trossard ($17; +195) gets a start for Arsenal, he'd be a sweet play. He's got the second-best goal odds on the team.


This is a terrible slate for high-salary attacking full-backs, which pushes me to save salary in my defender slots.

Marcos Senesi ($11), Jack Stephens ($10), Jordan Zemura ($9) and Adam Smith ($9) are all expected to start in defense for Bournemouth. With a matchup on tap against Manchester City, the Cherries' back line should be busy, giving these guys high floors. Stephens is my favorite of the bunch.

Leicester's Wout Faes ($10) is another midrange defender who we should be able to count on for solid production. He's averaging 12.7 FanDuel points per match this year and will be asked to do a lot versus the Gunners.

Arsenal full-back Oleksandr Zinchenko ($10) is salaried modestly and usually spends a good amount of time in dangerous areas. If the matchup with Leicester becomes an open affair, Zinchenko could go off. He's +300 to score/assist.

Added time -- West Ham full-backs Emerson ($10) and Vladimir Coufal ($10) offer decent upside at home versus Forest. ... While Kyle Walker ($7) probably needs the clean-sheet bonus to be worth using, City are +100 to blank the Cherries. ... Joe Worrall ($10) has scored at least 11.7 FanDuel points in four of his last five outings and figures to be decently busy at West Ham.


Ederson ($14) and Aaron Ramsdale ($12) headline the top tier.

Ederson is a slate-leading +100 to keep a clean sheet in his match at Bournemouth. It's always the same story with him -- the win and clean-sheet odds are nice, but he will likely have almost no save volume to fall back on should be concede a goal. That exact scenario played out last weekend as he allowed one goal and made zero saves to total -2.5 FanDuel points. He's kept just one clean sheet over his past seven games.

However, given his recent outputs and with Ramsdale $2 lower in salary, Ederson probably won't see much love on this slate, potentially making him a fun GPP play.

As for Ramsdale, he's easy to like, but oddsmakers are giving Leicester a good chance to score, putting Arsenal's clean-sheet odds at only +175. That can work as a positive for Ramsdale, though, as it could mean he'll be somewhat busy. That gives him save volume and the upside for a multi-save clean-sheet win, which is the dream.

Lukasz Fabianski ($12) is another quality choice. He's +120 to keep a clean sheet -- much better than Ramsdale's odds -- for his home date with Forest, a side that's gone without a goal in three of their past five matches (across all competitions).

Jordan Pickford ($10) is also worth a look. Everton has stopped leaking goals since Sean Dyche took over. Pickford has a clean sheet in two of his last three appearances, and Villa is good enough going forward to give Pickford a chance to amass multiple saves.

Added time -- Illan Meslier ($11) is a solid +162 to keep a clean sheet at home versus the Saints. Leeds' meh defense usually keeps him busy as he's recorded 11 saves across the past three matches. ... Keylor Navas ($8) is a fine value dart throw. He kept City to one goal last time out, and West Ham's attack isn't too scary.