Premier League Betting Guide: Matchweek 22
Which EPL soccer lines offer value this week on FanDuel Sportsbook?
Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see the most updated numbers.
Chelsea vs. Fulham
Fulham to win +470
In a surprising turn of events, Fulham have found themselves ahead of Chelsea in the table in early February. Fulham are two points clear of Chelsea in the table, although the Blues do have a game in hand, yet Fulham come into this game as major underdogs in terms of the betting line.
Fulham are ahead of Chelsea by one goal on goal differential, and although they do trail Chelsea in expected goal differential (xGD), per FBRef, it is not by a large margin -- with Chelsea at -2.5 and Fulham at -7.0. This indicates that perhaps Fulham is a tad fortunate to be in seventh at the moment, but they have still done much better than expected this season by any metric you want to look at.
Fulham are a strong team, and Chelsea have massively underachieved. Fulham should expect to get at least a point from this Friday match despite the long odds.
Wolves vs. Liverpool
Similarly to Chelsea, Wolves and Liverpool have both been extremely disappointing so far this season.
Liverpool entered the year as a title contender, but the Reds have racked up only 29 points from 19 matches. However, Liverpool have fared much better in terms of xGD with a clip of +6.4. They haven't been a title challenger, but they have been a little unlucky.
Wolves are a bad team this season by any metric, amassing only 17 points in 20 matches with a -10.0 xGD. Liverpool are 3W-1D-0L against the current bottom-five teams in the league, including a 9-0 thrashing of 18th-place Bournemouth earlier this season.
Liverpool are not having the season we expected from them, but it is still reasonable to believe they will prevail over the weaker teams in the EPL. Getting the Reds at -115 to win is pretty darn appealing.
Aston Villa vs. Leicester
Aston Villa to win -105
Aston Villa are having a solid season at 8-4-8, and they are in good form, going 3-1-0 in their last four matches, a stretch that included a 2-0 away win against fifth-place Tottenham.
Leicester, meanwhile, have been in miserable form, going 0-1-4 since the return from the World Cup.
Leicester are 5-3-12 this season, putting them 10 points behind Villa and leaving them in the mix for the relegation race. They are 7.5 goals behind Villa on xGD and are only 3-0-7 away from home. Leicester’s best win this season was against 13th-place Nottingham Forest, and they have been consistently outmatched against quality opponents all season long.
Expect Villa to maintain their good form and take care of business at home in this one.