FanDuel World Cup Daily Fantasy Helper: Tuesday 12/6/22
The World Cup is the biggest sporting event on the planet, and FanDuel is offering daily fantasy contests throughout the tournament.
In the Round of 16, main slates will feature both of the day’s matches, which are scheduled to start at 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. EST. Knockout matches are a little different than all other matches. If a match goes to extra time, FanDuel contests continue through the conclusion of extra time. Nothing from a penalty shootout will be factored into scoring.
Spain (-175) vs. Morocco (+550)
Over 2.5 Goals: +122 | Most Likely to Score: Morata (+145)
Portugal (-115) vs. Switzerland (+350)
Over 2.5 Goals: +126 | Most Likely to Score: Ronaldo (+170)
Portugal and Spain are the standout sides on Tuesday's slate. With the two matches at just +126 and +122 to go over 2.5 goals, we might have a low-scoring slate.
Of the two favorites, the betting numbers push us toward Spain. The Spanish are -133 to go over 1.5 goals while Portugal are -105 to score twice.
Spain have underwhelmed since a seven-goal explosion in their opener, creating just 0.6 and 1.0 expected goals (xG), per FBRef. But those two matches came against Japan and Germany -- stiff competition. As weird as it may sound, Morocco might be Spain's easiest matchup since said opener. Despite winning their group, Morocco own an xG differential of -0.5, although they had a difficult group that included Belgium and Croatia.
All in all, I want pieces of Spain, and I think they'll be able to create chances against Morocco. Alvaro Morata ($21; +145 to score) carries the slate's best anytime goal odds as well as the best goal-or-assist odds (-115). He's amassed three goals and one assist in the World Cup in spite of playing only 127 total minutes. He's Spain's best goal threat and DFS option as long as he starts.
You can also turn to Dani Olmo ($22; +260) and Ferran Torres ($18; +200). Torres has two goals in this tourney while Olmo has a goal and an assist. Torres is +100 to score/assist. Midfielders Gavi ($13; +420) and Pedri ($10; +430) are fine options, too, and both offer valuable salary relief. I'll have a lot of Pedri. The salary savings are huge, and he's capable of doing more in attack than he has.
As for Portugal,
Manchester United teammates Cri stiano Ronaldo ($19; +170) and Bruno Fernandes ($22; +320) are excellent options. Ronaldo will take penalties when he's on the pitch and has the match's top goal odds by a healthy margin. But he'll be chalk, especially at his salary. Fernandes tallied two goals and two assists in the group stage and has been Portugal's best player.
It's likely just one of Rafael Leao ($17; +310) and Joao Felix ($18; +320) starts. Whoever gets the nod -- probably Felix -- is a fun pivot off Ronaldo and Bruno. Both Felix and Leao have scored a goal in this tourney and won't be nearly as popular as Fernandes and CR7.
Of the two underdogs, Switzerland is the more live one. They are just +115 to get shut out, compared to -133 odds for Morocco. Portugal conceded 3.9 xG in the group and have been vulnerable at the back. Breel Embolo ($14; +410) and Xherdan Shaqiri ($13; +500) are two of Switzerland's key pieces in attack.
Youssef En-Nesyri ($14; +400) holds the best goal odds for Morocco. Both he and Hakim Ziyech ($15; +700) are +260 to score/assist.
You can go a few different directions at defender. I want either a full-back with attacking upside or a high-floor defender.
Spain's Jordi Alba ($12) and Portugal's Joao Cancelo ($11) are top-notch full-backs on favorites. They are +220 and +260, respectively, to score/assist. Three of Spain's five assists in the World Cup have come from their full-backs, with Alba notching two of them. He's a sublime stacking partner alongside any of Spain's attackers. As for Cancelo, he hasn't had the same attacking juice we get from him when he's at Manchester City, but he's a fantastic crosser who pairs well with Ronaldo.
Morocco's Achraf Hakimi ($14) won't spend as much time getting forward as those two, but the PSG right-back has blistering pace and can exploit the space behind Alba, Spain's left-back, who isn't as quick as he used to be. Hakimi has created three chances and put one shot on goal through three matches in the World Cup.
In a match in which Morocco will have to play without the ball for a good chunk of the game, Romain Saiss ($15) and Nayef Aguerd ($9) should be busy, giving them a solid floor. Saiss has a goal to his name in this tourney, which has inflated his salary. He's a +2500 longshot to score in this one and shouldn't be $15. I much prefer Aguerd at his salary.
Manuel Akanji ($9) is a low-salary center-back for Switzerland. He's averaging 10.9 FanDuel points per game and should have a decent floor against Portugal.
The best win (-175) and clean-sheet (-133) odds sit with Spain's Unai Simon ($13), and the salary isn't too hard to get to. The problem with Simon is save volume. He's recorded only one save outside of a three-stop game against Germany. I don't think Morocco will be able to create many chances. But if you want the best odds at a clean-sheet victory, he's the guy.
Diego Costa ($11) is a solid play, too. Portugal haven't been that stingy defensively, resulting in Costa totaling seven saves across his past two outings. He's a solid +115 to keep a clean sheet and -115 to win. The floor/ceiling combination is better than Simon's.
Between Switzerland's Yann Sommer ($9) and Morocco's Bono ($7), I'd rather full-on punt with Bono. As I said early on, Spain's attack has sputtered in the past two games. I don't think it's that bad of a matchup for him.